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Why Bitcoin is Superior to Gold
There is a constant war being fought between goldbugs, like Peter Schiff, and Bitcoin enthusiasts so I decided to make an outline, with links, comparing and contrasting gold and Bitcoin. I made this in November of 2019 (thus the information therein is based on figures from that time) but, being scatter brained, neglected to post this for the Bitcoin community to see. The yardsticks I used to compare the two assets included the following: shipping/transactions costs, storage costs, censorship factor, settlement time, stock to flow, blockchain vs clearing house, validation, etc. I will also touch on Roosevelt's gold confiscation executive order in 1933, transporting gold during the Spanish Civil War in 1936, and the hypothetical cost for Venezuela to repatriate its gold more recently. I will provide a brief summary first then follow that with the outline I made. This information can be used as a tool for the Bitcoin community to combat some of the silly rhetoric coming from goldbugs such as Peter Schiff and James Rickards. I would like to make it clear, however, that I am not against gold and think that it performed its role as money very well in a technologically inferior era, namely Victorian times but I think Bitcoin performs the functions of money better than gold does in the current environment. I have been looking to make a contribution to the Bitcoin community and I hope this is a useful and educational tool for everyone who reads this. Summary: Shipping/transaction costs: 100 ounces of gold could be shipped for 315 dollars; the comparable dollar value in Bitcoin could be sent for 35 dollars using a non-segwit address. Using historical precendent, it would cost an estimated $32,997,989 to transport $1 billion in gold using the 3.3% fee that the Soviets charged the Spaniards in 1936; a $1 billion Bitcoin transaction moved for $690 last year by comparison. Please note that the only historic example we can provide for moving enormous sums of gold was when the government of Spain transported gold to Moscow during the Spanish Civil War in 1936. More information on this topic will be found in the notes section. Storage costs: 100 ounces of gold would require $451 per year to custody while the equivalent value of Bitcoin in dollar terms could be stored for the cost of a Ledger Nano S, $59.99. $1 billion USD value of gold would cost $2,900,000 per year while an Armory set up that is more secure would run you the cost of a laptop, $200-300. Censorship factor: Gold must pass through a 3rd party whenever it is shipped, whether for a transaction or for personal transportation. Gold will typically have to be declared and a customs duty may be imposed when crossing international borders. The key take-away is gatekeepers (customs) can halt movement of gold thus making transactions difficult. $46,000 of gold was seized in India despite the smugglers hiding it in their rectums. Settlement time: Shipping gold based on 100 ounces takes anywhere from 3-10 days while Bitcoin transactions clear in roughly 10 minutes depending on network congestion and fee size. Historic confiscation: Franklin Roosevelt confiscated and debased the paper value of gold in 1933 with Executive Order 6102. Since gold is physical in nature and value dense, it is often stored in custodial vaults like banks and so forth which act as a honeypot for rapacious governments. Stock to flow: Plan B's stock to flow model has become a favorite on twitter. Stock to flow measures the relationship between the total stock of an asset against the amount that is produced in a given year. Currently gold still has the highest value at 62 while Bitcoin sits at 50 in 2nd place. Bitcoin will overtake gold in 2024 after the next halving. Blockchain vs clearing house: gold payments historically passed through a 3rd party (clearinghouse) in order to be validated while Bitcoin transactions can be self validated through the use of a node. Key Takeaway from above- Bitcoin is vastly superior to gold in terms of cost, speed, and censorship resistance. One could theoretically carry around an enormous sum of Bitcoin on a cold card while the equivalent dollar value of gold would require a wheelbarrow...and create an enormous target on the back of the transporter. With the exception of the stock to flow ratio (which will flip in Bitcoin's favor soon), Bitcoin is superior to gold by all metrics covered. Notes: Shipping/transaction costs Gold 100 oz = 155,500. 45 x 7 = $315 to ship 100 oz gold. https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/839735-katchum/2547831-how-much-does-it-cost-to-ship-silver-and-gold https://www.coininvest.com/en/shipping-prices/ 211 tonnes Venezuela; 3.3% of $10.5 billion = 346,478,880 or 32,997,989/billion usd http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/08/23/how-to-get-12-billion-of-gold-to-venezuela/ (counter party risk; maduro; quotes from article) Bitcoin 18 bitcoin equivalent value; 35 USD with legacy address https://blockexplorer.com/ https://bitcoinfees.info/ 1 billion; $690 dollars https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/09/someone-moved-1-billion-in-a-single-bitcoin-transaction/ Storage costs Gold .29% annually; https://sdbullion.com/gold-silver-storage 100 oz – $451/year $1 billion USD value – $2,900,000/year Bitcoin Ledger Nano S - $59.00 (for less bitcoin) https://shop.ledger.com/products/ledger-nano-s/transparent?flow_country=USA&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI3ILV5O-Z5wIVTtbACh1zTAwqEAQYASABEgJ5SPD_BwE Armory - $200-300 cost of laptop for setup https://www.bitcoinarmory.com/ Censorship factor (must pass through 3rd party) Varies by country Gold will typically have to be declared and a customs duty may be imposed Key take-away is gatekeepers (customs) can halt movement of gold thus making transactions difficult $46,000 seized in India https://www.foxnews.com/travel/indian-airport-stops-29-passengers-smuggling-gold-in-their-rectums Settlement time Gold For 100 oz transaction by USPS 3-10 days (must pass through 3rd party) Bitcoin Roughly 10 minutes to be included in next block Historic confiscation-roosevelt 1933 Executive Order 6102 (forced spending, fed could ban cash, go through and get quotes) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 “The stated reason for the order was that hard times had caused "hoarding" of gold, stalling economic growth and making the depression worse” Stock to flow; https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25 (explain what it is and use charts in article) Gold; SF of 62 Bitcoin; SF of 25 but will double to 50 after May (and to 100 in four years) Blockchain vs clearing house Transactions can be validated by running a full node vs. third party settlement Validation Gold; https://www.goldismoney2.com/threads/cost-to-assay.6732/ (Read some responses) Bitcoin Cost of electricity to run a full node Breaking down Venezuela conundrum; http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/08/23/how-to-get-12-billion-of-gold-to-venezuela/ “The last (and only) known case of this kind of quantity of gold being transported across state lines took place almost exactly 75 years ago, in 1936, when the government of Spain removed 560 tons of gold from Madrid to Moscow as the armies of Francisco Franco approached. Most of the gold was exchanged for Russian weaponry, with the Soviet Union keeping 2.1% of the funds in the form of commissions and brokerage, and an additional 1.2% in the form of transport, deposit, melting, and refining expenses.” “Venezuela would need to transport the gold in several trips, traders said, since the high value of gold means it would be impossible to insure a single aircraft carrying 211 tonnes. It could take about 40 shipments to move the gold back to Caracas, traders estimated. “It’s going to be quite a task. Logistically, I’m not sure if the central bank realises the magnitude of the task ahead of them,” said one senior gold banker.” “So maybe Chávez intends to take matters into his own hands, and just sail the booty back to Venezuela on one of his own naval ships. Again, the theft risk is obvious — seamen can be greedy too — and this time there would be no insurance. Chávez is pretty crazy, but I don’t think he’d risk $12 billion that way.” “Which leaves one final alternative. Gold is fungible, and people are actually willing to pay a premium to buy gold which is sitting in the Bank of England’s ultra-secure vaults. So why bother transporting that gold at all? Venezuela could enter into an intercontinental repo transaction, where it sells its gold in the Bank of England to some counterparty, and then promises to buy it all back at a modest discount, on condition that it’s physically delivered to the Venezuelan central bank in Caracas. It would then be up to the counterparty to work out how to get 211 tons of gold to Caracas by a certain date. That gold could be sourced anywhere in the world, and transported in any conceivable manner — being much less predictable and transparent, those shipments would also be much harder to hijack. How much of a discount would a counterparty require to enter into this kind of transaction? Much more than 3.3%, is my guess. And again, it’s not entirely clear who would even be willing to entertain the idea. Glencore, perhaps?” “But here’s one last idea: why doesn’t Chávez crowdsource the problem? He could simply open a gold window at the Banco Central de Venezuela, where anybody at all could deliver standard gold bars. In return, the central bank would transfer to that person an equal number of gold bars in the custody of the Bank of England, plus a modest bounty of say 2% — that’s over $15,000 per 400-ounce bar, at current rates. It would take a little while, but eventually the gold would start trickling in: if you’re willing to pay a constant premium of 2% over the market price for a good, you can be sure that the good in question will ultimately find its way to your door. And the 2% cost of acquiring all that gold would surely be much lower than the cost of insuring and shipping it from England. It would be an elegant market-based solution to an artificial and ideologically-driven problem; I daresay Chávez might even chuckle at the irony of it. He’d just need to watch out for a rise in Andean banditry, as thieves tried to steal the bars on their disparate journeys into Venezuela.”
The Next Crypto Wave: The Rise of Stablecoins and its Entry to the U.S. Dollar Market
Author: Christian Hsieh, CEO of Tokenomy This paper examines some explanations for the continual global market demand for the U.S. dollar, the rise of stablecoins, and the utility and opportunities that crypto dollars can offer to both the cryptocurrency and traditional markets. The U.S. dollar, dominant in world trade since the establishment of the 1944 Bretton Woods System, is unequivocally the world’s most demanded reserve currency. Today, more than 61% of foreign bank reserves and nearly 40% of the entire world’s debt is denominated in U.S. dollars1. However, there is a massive supply and demand imbalance in the U.S. dollar market. On the supply side, central banks throughout the world have implemented more than a decade-long accommodative monetary policy since the 2008 global financial crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated the need for central banks to provide necessary liquidity and keep staggering economies moving. While the Federal Reserve leads the effort of “money printing” and stimulus programs, the current money supply still cannot meet the constant high demand for the U.S. dollar2. Let us review some of the reasons for this constant dollar demand from a few economic fundamentals.
Demand for U.S. Dollars
Firstly, most of the world’s trade is denominated in U.S. dollars. Chief Economist of the IMF, Gita Gopinath, has compiled data reflecting that the U.S. dollar’s share of invoicing was 4.7 times larger than America’s share of the value of imports, and 3.1 times its share of world exports3. The U.S. dollar is the dominant “invoicing currency” in most developing countries4. https://preview.redd.it/d4xalwdyz8p51.png?width=535&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f0556c6aa6b29016c9b135f3279e8337dfee2a6 https://preview.redd.it/wucg40kzz8p51.png?width=653&format=png&auto=webp&s=71257fec29b43e0fc0df1bf04363717e3b52478f This U.S. dollar preference also directly impacts the world’s debt. According to the Bank of International Settlements, there is over $67 trillion in U.S. dollar denominated debt globally, and borrowing outside of the U.S. accounted for $12.5 trillion in Q1 20205. There is an immense demand for U.S. dollars every year just to service these dollar debts. The annual U.S. dollar buying demand is easily over $1 trillion assuming the borrowing cost is at 1.5% (1 year LIBOR + 1%) per year, a conservative estimate. https://preview.redd.it/6956j6f109p51.png?width=487&format=png&auto=webp&s=ccea257a4e9524c11df25737cac961308b542b69 Secondly, since the U.S. has a much stronger economy compared to its global peers, a higher return on investments draws U.S. dollar demand from everywhere in the world, to invest in companies both in the public and private markets. The U.S. hosts the largest stock markets in the world with more than $33 trillion in public market capitalization (combined both NYSE and NASDAQ)6. For the private market, North America’s total share is well over 60% of the $6.5 trillion global assets under management across private equity, real assets, and private debt investments7. The demand for higher quality investments extends to the fixed income market as well. As countries like Japan and Switzerland currently have negative-yielding interest rates8, fixed income investors’ quest for yield in the developed economies leads them back to the U.S. debt market. As of July 2020, there are $15 trillion worth of negative-yielding debt securities globally (see chart). In comparison, the positive, low-yielding U.S. debt remains a sound fixed income strategy for conservative investors in uncertain market conditions. Source: Bloomberg Last, but not least, there are many developing economies experiencing failing monetary policies, where hyperinflation has become a real national disaster. A classic example is Venezuela, where the currency Bolivar became practically worthless as the inflation rate skyrocketed to 10,000,000% in 20199. The recent Beirut port explosion in Lebanon caused a sudden economic meltdown and compounded its already troubled financial market, where inflation has soared to over 112% year on year10. For citizens living in unstable regions such as these, the only reliable store of value is the U.S. dollar. According to the Chainalysis 2020 Geography of Cryptocurrency Report, Venezuela has become one of the most active cryptocurrency trading countries11. The demand for cryptocurrency surges as a flight to safety mentality drives Venezuelans to acquire U.S. dollars to preserve savings that they might otherwise lose. The growth for cryptocurrency activities in those regions is fueled by these desperate citizens using cryptocurrencies as rails to access the U.S. dollar, on top of acquiring actual Bitcoin or other underlying crypto assets.
The Rise of Crypto Dollars
Due to the highly volatile nature of cryptocurrencies, USD stablecoin, a crypto-powered blockchain token that pegs its value to the U.S. dollar, was introduced to provide stable dollar exposure in the crypto trading sphere. Tether is the first of its kind. Issued in 2014 on the bitcoin blockchain (Omni layer protocol), under the token symbol USDT, it attempts to provide crypto traders with a stable settlement currency while they trade in and out of various crypto assets. The reason behind the stablecoin creation was to address the inefficient and burdensome aspects of having to move fiat U.S. dollars between the legacy banking system and crypto exchanges. Because one USDT is theoretically backed by one U.S. dollar, traders can use USDT to trade and settle to fiat dollars. It was not until 2017 that the majority of traders seemed to realize Tether’s intended utility and started using it widely. As of April 2019, USDT trading volume started exceeding the trading volume of bitcoina12, and it now dominates the crypto trading sphere with over $50 billion average daily trading volume13. https://preview.redd.it/3vq7v1jg09p51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=46f11b5f5245a8c335ccc60432873e9bad2eb1e1 An interesting aspect of USDT is that although the claimed 1:1 backing with U.S. dollar collateral is in question, and the Tether company is in reality running fractional reserves through a loose offshore corporate structure, Tether’s trading volume and adoption continues to grow rapidly14. Perhaps in comparison to fiat U.S. dollars, which is not really backed by anything, Tether still has cash equivalents in reserves and crypto traders favor its liquidity and convenience over its lack of legitimacy. For those who are concerned about Tether’s solvency, they can now purchase credit default swaps for downside protection15. On the other hand, USDC, the more compliant contender, takes a distant second spot with total coin circulation of $1.8 billion, versus USDT at $14.5 billion (at the time of publication). It is still too early to tell who is the ultimate leader in the stablecoin arena, as more and more stablecoins are launching to offer various functions and supporting mechanisms. There are three main categories of stablecoin: fiat-backed, crypto-collateralized, and non-collateralized algorithm based stablecoins. Most of these are still at an experimental phase, and readers can learn more about them here. With the continuous innovation of stablecoin development, the utility stablecoins provide in the overall crypto market will become more apparent.
In addition to trade settlement, stablecoins can be applied in many other areas. Cross-border payments and remittances is an inefficient market that desperately needs innovation. In 2020, the average cost of sending money across the world is around 7%16, and it takes days to settle. The World Bank aims to reduce remittance fees to 3% by 2030. With the implementation of blockchain technology, this cost could be further reduced close to zero. J.P. Morgan, the largest bank in the U.S., has created an Interbank Information Network (IIN) with 416 global Institutions to transform the speed of payment flows through its own JPM Coin, another type of crypto dollar17. Although people argue that JPM Coin is not considered a cryptocurrency as it cannot trade openly on a public blockchain, it is by far the largest scale experiment with all the institutional participants trading within the “permissioned” blockchain. It might be more accurate to refer to it as the use of distributed ledger technology (DLT) instead of “blockchain” in this context. Nevertheless, we should keep in mind that as J.P. Morgan currently moves $6 trillion U.S. dollars per day18, the scale of this experiment would create a considerable impact in the international payment and remittance market if it were successful. Potentially the day will come when regulated crypto exchanges become participants of IIN, and the link between public and private crypto assets can be instantly connected, unlocking greater possibilities in blockchain applications. Many central banks are also in talks about developing their own central bank digital currency (CBDC). Although this idea was not new, the discussion was brought to the forefront due to Facebook’s aggressive Libra project announcement in June 2019 and the public attention that followed. As of July 2020, at least 36 central banks have published some sort of CBDC framework. While each nation has a slightly different motivation behind its currency digitization initiative, ranging from payment safety, transaction efficiency, easy monetary implementation, or financial inclusion, these central banks are committed to deploying a new digital payment infrastructure. When it comes to the technical architectures, research from BIS indicates that most of the current proofs-of-concept tend to be based upon distributed ledger technology (permissioned blockchain)19. https://preview.redd.it/lgb1f2rw19p51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=040bb0deed0499df6bf08a072fd7c4a442a826a0 These institutional experiments are laying an essential foundation for an improved global payment infrastructure, where instant and frictionless cross-border settlements can take place with minimal costs. Of course, the interoperability of private DLT tokens and public blockchain stablecoins has yet to be explored, but the innovation with both public and private blockchain efforts could eventually merge. This was highlighted recently by the Governor of the Bank of England who stated that “stablecoins and CBDC could sit alongside each other20”. One thing for certain is that crypto dollars (or other fiat-linked digital currencies) are going to play a significant role in our future economy.
There is never a dull moment in the crypto sector. The industry narratives constantly shift as innovation continues to evolve. Twelve years since its inception, Bitcoin has evolved from an abstract subject to a familiar concept. Its role as a secured, scarce, decentralized digital store of value has continued to gain acceptance, and it is well on its way to becoming an investable asset class as a portfolio hedge against asset price inflation and fiat currency depreciation.Stablecoins have proven to be useful as proxy dollars in the crypto world, similar to how dollars are essential in the traditional world. It is only a matter of time before stablecoins or private digital tokens dominate the cross-border payments and global remittances industry. There are no shortages of hypes and experiments that draw new participants into the crypto space, such as smart contracts, new blockchains, ICOs, tokenization of things, or the most recent trends on DeFi tokens. These projects highlight the possibilities for a much more robust digital future, but the market also needs time to test and adopt. A reliable digital payment infrastructure must be built first in order to allow these experiments to flourish. In this paper we examined the historical background and economic reasons for the U.S. dollar’s dominance in the world, and the probable conclusion is that the demand for U.S. dollars will likely continue, especially in the middle of a global pandemic, accompanied by a worldwide economic slowdown. The current monetary system is far from perfect, but there are no better alternatives for replacement at least in the near term. Incremental improvements are being made in both the public and private sectors, and stablecoins have a definite role to play in both the traditional and the new crypto world. Thank you. Reference:  How the US dollar became the world’s reserve currency, Investopedia  The dollar is in high demand, prone to dangerous appreciation, The Economist  Dollar dominance in trade and finance, Gita Gopinath  Global trades dependence on dollars, The Economist & IMF working papers  Total credit to non-bank borrowers by currency of denomination, BIS  Biggest stock exchanges in the world, Business Insider  McKinsey Global Private Market Review 2020, McKinsey & Company  Central banks current interest rates, Global Rates  Venezuela hyperinflation hits 10 million percent, CNBC  Lebanon inflation crisis, Reuters  Venezuela cryptocurrency market, Chainalysis  The most used cryptocurrency isn’t Bitcoin, Bloomberg  Trading volume of all crypto assets, coinmarketcap.com  Tether US dollar peg is no longer credible, Forbes  New crypto derivatives let you bet on (or against) Tether’s solvency, Coindesk  Remittance Price Worldwide, The World Bank  Interbank Information Network, J.P. Morgan  Jamie Dimon interview, CBS News  Rise of the central bank digital currency, BIS  Speech by Andrew Bailey, 3 September 2020, Bank of England
Testing the Tide | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - June 2020
We would rather be ruined than changed. -W H Auden, The Age of Anxiety This is my forty-third portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars). This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $726 306 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $42 118 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $78 730 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $111 691 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $201 745 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $39 357 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $231 269 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 668 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 310 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 532 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $117 757 Secured physical gold – $18 913 Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $10 479 Bitcoin – $148 990 Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 841 Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 553 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 484 Total portfolio value: $1 765 743 (+$8 485 or 0.5%) Asset allocation Australian shares – 42.2% (2.8% under) Global shares – 22.0% Emerging markets shares – 2.3% International small companies – 3.0% Total international shares – 27.3% (2.7% under) Total shares – 69.5% (5.5% under) Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over) Australian bonds – 4.7% International bonds – 9.4% Total bonds – 14.0% (1.0% under) Gold – 7.7% Bitcoin – 8.4% Gold and alternatives – 16.2% (6.2% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. [Chart] Comments The overall portfolio increased slightly over the month. This has continued to move the portfolio beyond the lows seen in late March. The modest portfolio growth of $8 000, or 0.5 per cent, maintains its value at around that achieved at the beginning of the year. [Chart] The limited growth this month largely reflects an increase in the value of my current equity holdings, in VAS and A200 and the Vanguard retail funds. This has outweighed a small decline in the value of Bitcoin and global shares. The value of the bond holdings also increased modestly, pushing them to their highest value since around early 2017. [Chart] There still appears to be an air of unreality around recent asset price increases and the broader economic context. Britain's Bank of England has on some indicators shown that the aftermath of the pandemic and lockdown represent the most challenging financial crisis in around 300 years. What is clear is that investor perceptions and fear around the coronavirus pandemic are a substantial ongoing force driving volatility in equity markets (pdf). A somewhat optimistic view is provided here that the recovery could look more like the recovery from a natural disaster, rather than a traditional recession. Yet there are few certainties on offer. Negative oil prices, and effective offers by US equity investors to bail out Hertz creditors at no cost appear to be signs of a financial system under significant strains. As this Reserve Bank article highlights, while some Australian households are well-placed to weather the storm ahead, the timing and severity of what lays ahead is an important unknown that will itself feed into changes in household wealth from here. Investments this month have been exclusively in the Australian shares exchange-traded fund (VAS) using Selfwealth.* This has been to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares. A moving azimuth: falling spending continues Monthly expenses on the credit card have continued their downward trajectory across the past month. [Chart] The rolling average of monthly credit card spending is now at its lowest point over the period of the journey. This is despite the end of lockdown, and a slow resumption of some more normal aspects of spending. This has continued the brief period since April of the achievement of a notional and contingent kind of financial independence. The below chart illustrates this temporary state, setting out the degree to which portfolio distributions cover estimated total expenses, measured month to month. [Chart] There are two sources of volatility underlying its movement. The first is the level of expenses, which can vary, and the second is the fact that it is based on financial year distributions, which are themselves volatile. Importantly, the distributions over the last twelve months of this chart is only an estimate - and hence the next few weeks will affect the precision of this analysis across its last 12 observations. Estimating 2019-20 financial year portfolio distributions Since the beginning of the journey, this time of year usually has sense of waiting for events to unfold - in particular, finding out the level of half-year distributions to June. These represent the bulk of distributions, usually averaging 60-65 per cent of total distributions received. They are an important and tangible signpost of progress on the financial independence journey. This is no simple task, as distributions have varied in size considerably. A part of this variation has been the important role of sometimes large and lumpy capital distributions - which have made up between 30 to 48 per cent of total distributions in recent years, and an average of around 15 per cent across the last two decades. I have experimented with many different approaches, most of which have relied on averaging over multi-year periods to even out the 'peaks and troughs' of how market movements may have affected distributions. The main approaches have been:
An 'adjusted income' approach - stripping out the capital gains components of Vanguard funds to reach an estimate of underlying income generation, both across the entire investment period, and during the sharpest low of the Global Financial Crisis
A long-term asset class approach - relying on long-term historical data on averages of the income produced by various asset classes
A 'tax method' approach - this derives an income estimate as a percentage of the portfolio by drawing on taxable investment income totals from tax return records
Simple historical rolling average - this is a rolling three-year measure, based on the actual distributions record of the portfolio
Average distribution rate approach - this method uses a long-term average of annual distributions received as a percentage of the total portfolio since 1999
Each of these have their particular simplifications, advantages and drawbacks. Developing new navigation tools Over the past month I have also developed more fully an alternate 'model' for estimating returns. This simply derives a median value across a set of historical 'cents per unit' distribution data for June and December payouts for the Vanguard funds and exchange traded funds. These make up over 96 per cent of income producing portfolio assets. In other words, this model essentially assumes that each Vanguard fund and ETF owned pays out the 'average' level of distributions this half-year, with the average being based on distribution records that typically go back between 5 to 10 years. Mapping the distribution estimates The chart below sets out the estimate produced by each approach for the June distributions that are to come. [Chart] Some observations on these findings can be made. The lowest estimate is the 'adjusted GFC income' observation, which essentially assumes that the income for this period is as low as experienced by the equity and bond portfolio during the Global Financial Crisis. Just due to timing differences of the period observed, this seems to be a 'worst case' lower bound estimate, which I do not currently place significant weight on. Similarly, at the highest end, the 'average distribution rate' approach simply assumes June distributions deliver a distribution equal to the median that the entire portfolio has delivered since 1999. With higher interest rates, and larger fixed income holdings across much of that time, this seems an objectively unlikely outcome. Similarly, the delivery of exactly the income suggested by long-term averages measured across decades and even centuries would be a matter of chance, rather than the basis for rational expectations. Central estimates of the line of position This leaves the estimates towards the centre of the chart - estimates of between around $28 000 to $43 000 as representing the more likely range. I attach less weight to the historical three-year average due to the high contribution of distributed capital gains over that period of growth, where at least across equities some capital losses are likely to be in greater presence. My preferred central estimate is the model estimate (green) , as it is based in historical data directly from the investment vehicles rather than my own evolving portfolio. The data it is based on in some cases goes back to the Global Financial Crisis. This estimate is also quite close to the raw average of all the alternative approaches (red). It sits a little above the 'adjusted income' measure. None of these estimates, it should be noted, contain any explicit adjustment for the earnings and dividend reductions or delays arising from COVID-19. They may, therefore represent a modest over-estimate for likely June distributions, to the extent that these effects are more negative than those experienced on average across the period of the underlying data. These are difficult to estimate, but dividend reductions could easily be in the order of 20-30 per cent, plausibly lowering distributions to the $23 000 to $27 000 range. The recently announced forecast dividend for the Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) is, for example, the lowest in four years. As seen from chart above, there is a wide band of estimates, which grow wider still should capital gains be unexpectedly distributed from the Vanguard retail funds. These have represented a source of considerable volatility. Given this, it may seem fruitless to seek to estimate these forthcoming distributions, compared to just waiting for them to arrive. Yet this exercise helps by setting out reasoning and positions, before hindsight bias urgently arrives to inform me that I knew the right answer all along. It also potentially helps clearly 'reject' some models over time, if the predictions they make prove to be systematically incorrect. Progress Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 81.0% 109.4% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 98.8% 133.5% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 79.2% 106.9% Summary The current coronavirus conditions are affecting all aspects of the journey to financial independence - changing spending habits, leading to volatility in equity markets and sequencing risks, and perhaps dramatically altering the expected pattern of portfolio distributions. Although history can provide some guidance, there is simply no definitive way to know whether any or all of these changes will be fundamental and permanent alterations, or simply data points on a post-natural disaster path to a different post-pandemic set of conditions. There is the temptation to fit past crises imperfectly into the modern picture, as this Of Dollars and Data post illustrates well. Taking a longer 100 year view, this piece 'The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent' is a reminder that our entire set of received truths about constructing a portfolio to survive for the long-term can be a product of a sample size of one - actual past history - and subject to recency bias. This month has felt like one of quiet routines, muted events compared to the past few months, and waiting to understand more fully the shape of the new. Nonetheless, with each new investment, or week of lower expenditure than implied in my FI target, the nature of the journey is incrementally changing - beneath the surface. Small milestones are being passed - such as over 40 per cent of my equity holdings being outside of the the Vanguard retail funds. Or these these retail funds - which once formed over 95 per cent of the portfolio - now making up less than half. With a significant part of the financial independence journey being about repeated small actions producing outsized results with time, the issue of maintaining good routines while exploring beneficial changes is real. Adding to the complexity is that embarking on the financial journey itself is likely to change who one is. This idea, of the difficulty or impossibility of knowing the preferences of a future self, is explored in a fascinating way in this Econtalk podcast episode with a philosophical thought experiment about vampires. It poses the question: perhaps we can never know ourselves at the destination? And yet, who would rationally choose ruin over any change? The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
Two Roads Diverge | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - May 2020
Two roads diverged in a yellow wood, And sorry I could not travel both And be one traveler, long I stood And looked down one as far as I could To where it bent in the undergrowth Robert Frost, The Road Not Taken This is my forty-second portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars). This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $727 917 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $42 128 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $78 569 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $110 009 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $187 003 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $39 987 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $225 540 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 726 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 741 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 652 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $117 714 Secured physical gold – $18 982 Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $11 395 Bitcoin – $159 470 Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 357 Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 492 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 477 Total portfolio value: $1 757 159 (+$62 325 or 3.7%) Asset allocation Australian shares – 41.4% (3.6% under) Global shares – 22.2% Emerging markets shares – 2.3% International small companies – 3.0% Total international shares – 27.4% (2.6% under) Total shares – 68.8% (6.2% under) Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over) Australian bonds – 4.4% International bonds – 9.7% Total bonds – 14.1% (0.9% under) Gold – 7.8% Bitcoin – 9.1% Gold and alternatives – 16.9% (6.9% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. [Chart] Comments This month featured a further recovery in the overall portfolio, continuing to effectively reduce the size of the large losses across the first quarter. The portfolio has increased by around $62 000, leading to a portfolio growth of 3.7 per cent. This means that around half of the large recent falls have been made up, and the portfolio sits around levels last reached in October of last year. [Chart] Leading the portfolio growth has been increases in Australian shares - particularly those held through the Betashares A200 and Vanguard VAS exchange traded funds, with both gaining over four per cent. Most other holdings remained steady, or fell slightly. Markets appear to be almost entirely disconnected from the daily announcements of the sharp effects of the global coronavirus pandemic and the resulting restrictions. Bond and equity markets seem to have different and competing expectations for the future, and equity markets - at best - are apparently intent on looking through the immediate recovery phase to a new period of strong expansion. [Chart] On some metrics, both major global and Australian equity markets can be viewed as quite expensive, especially as reduced dividends announced have largely yet to be delivered. Yet if historically low bond yields are considered, it can be argued that some heightening compared to historical equity market valuations may be sustainable. Reflecting this moment of markets holding their breath before one of two possible futures plays out, gold and Bitcoin remain elevated, and consequently above their target weightings. Perhaps the same contending forces are in evidence in a recent Australian Securities and Investment Commission study (pdf) which has found that average Australian retail investors have reacted to uncertainty by activating old brokerage accounts, trading more frequently, and holding securities for shorter periods. My own market activity has been limited to purchases of Vanguard Australian shares ETF (VAS) and the international share ETF (VGS), to bring the portfolio closer to its target allocations. Will Australia continue to be lucky through global slow downs? Despite this burst of market activity in the retail market, it is unclear how Australian markets and equities will perform against the background of a global economic slowdown. A frequently heard argument is that a small open trade exposed commodities provider such as Australia, with a more narrowly-based economy, may perform poorly in a phase of heightened risk. This recent Bank of England paper (pdf) makes the intriguing suggestion that this argument is not borne out by the historical record. In fact, the paper finds that industrial production in Australia, China and a mere handful of other economies has tended to increase following global risk shocks. A question remaining, however, is whether the recovery from this 'risk shock' may have different characteristics and impacts than similar past events. One key question may be the exact form of government fiscal and monetary responses adopted. Another is whether inflation or deflation is the likely pathway - an unknown which itself may rely on whether long-term trends in the velocity of money supply continue, or are broken. Facing all uncertainties, attention should be on tail risks - and minimising the odds of extreme negative scenarios. The case for this is laid out in this moving reflection by Morgan Housel. For this reason, I am satisfied that my Ratesetter Peer-to-Peer loans have been gradually maturing, reducing some 'tail risk' credit exposures in what could be a testing phase for borrowers through new non-bank lending channels in Australia. With accrued interest of over $13 000, at rates of around 9 per cent on average, over the five years of the investment, the loans have performed relatively well. A temporary sheltering port - spending continues to decline This month spending has continued to fall even as lockdown and other restrictions have slowly begun to ease. These extraordinary events have pushed even the smoothed average of three year expenditure down. [Chart] On a monthly basis credit card spending and total expenses have hit the lowest levels in more than six years. Apparently, average savings rates are up across many economies, though obviously individual experiences and starting points can differ dramatically. Total estimated monthly expenditure has also fallen below current estimates of distributions for the first time since a period of exceptionally high distributions across financial year 2017-18. The result of this is that I am briefly and surprisingly, for this month, notionally financially independent based on assumed distributions from the FIRE portfolio alone - at least until more normal patterns of expenditure are resumed. Following the lines of drift - a longer view on progress made Yet taking a longer view - and accounting for the final portfolio goal set - gives a different perspective. This is of a journey reaching toward, but not at, an end. The chart below traces in purely nominal dollar terms the progress of the total portfolio value as a percentage of the current portfolio goal of $2.18 million over the last 13 years. It also shows three labels, with the percentage progress at the inception of detailed portfolio data in 2007, at the start of this written record in January 2017, and as at January 1 of this year. [Chart] Two trend lines are shown - one a polynomial and the other exponential function - and they are extended to include a projection of future progress out to around 18 months. The line of fit is close for the early part of the journey, but larger divergences from both trend lines are evident in the past two years as the impact of variable investment returns on a larger portfolio takes hold. There are some modest inaccuracies introduced by the nominal methodology adopted - such as somewhat discounting early progress. A 2007 dollar had greater 'real' value and significance than is assigned to it by this representation. The chart does demonstrate, however, the approximate shape and length of the early journey - with it taking around 5 years to reach 20 per cent of the target, and 10 years to reach around half way. Progress Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 80.6% 108.4% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 98.3% 132.3% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 78.8% 106.0% Summary With aspects of daily life slowly and incrementally adjusting to a 'new normal', the longer-term question for the portfolio remains around how markets and government actions interact in a recovery phase. The progress of the portfolio over the past 13 years has seemed, when viewed from afar as in chart above, predictable, and almost inevitable. Through the years it has felt anything but so smoothly linear. Rather, tides and waves have pushed and pulled, in turn stalling progress, or pushing it further ahead than hopes have dared. It is possible that what lays ahead is a simple 'return leg', or more of the same. That through simple extrapolation around 80 per cent of the challenges already lay behind. Yet that is not the set of mind that I approach the remainder of the journey with. Rather, the shortness of the distance to travel has lent an extra focus on those larger, lower probability, events that could delay the journey or push it off-course. Those 'third' risks types of tail risks which Morgan Housel points out. In one sense the portfolio allocation aims to deal - in a probabilistic way - with the multiple futures that could occur. Viewed in this way, a gold allocation (and also Bitcoin) represents a long option on an extreme state of the economic world arising - as it did in the early 1980s. The 75 per cent target allocation to equities can be viewed as a high level of assurance around a 'base case' that human ingenuity and innovation will continue to create value over the long term. The bond portfolio, similarly, can be seen as assigning a 15 per cent probability that both of these hypotheses are incorrect, and that further market falls and possible deflation are ahead. That perhaps even an experience akin to the lengthy, socially dislocating, post-bubble phase in Japan presided over by its central bank lays in store. In other interesting media consumed this month, 'Fire and Chill', the brand new podcast collaboration between Pat the Shuffler and Strong Money Australia got off to an enjoyable start, tackling 'Why Bother with FIRE' and other topics. Additionally, investment company Incrementum has just published the latest In Gold We Trust report, which gives an arrestingly different perspective on potential market and policy directions from traditional financial sources. The detailed report questions the role and effectiveness of traditionally 'risk-free' assets like government bonds in the types of futures that could emerge. On first reading, the scenarios it contains appear atypical and beyond the reasonable contemplation of many investors - until it is recalled that up to a few years ago no mainstream economics textbook would have entertained the potential for persistent negative interest rates. As the paths to different futures diverge, drawing on the wisdom of others to help look as far as possible into the bends in the undergrowth ahead becomes the safest choice. The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
In the Shade of Afternoon | Monthly FI Portfolio Update – August 2019
It is idle, having planted an acorn in the morning, to expect that afternoon to sit in the shade of the oak. Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, Wind, Sand and Stars This is my thirty-third portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goals. Portfolio goals My objectives are to reach a portfolio of:
$1 598 000 by 31 December 2020. This should produce a passive income of about $67 000 (Objective #1) - Achieved
$1 980 000 by 31 July 2023, to produce a passive income equivalent to $83 000 (Objective #2)
Both of these are based on an expected average real return of 4.19%, or a nominal return of 7.19%, and are expressed in 2018 dollars. Portfolio summary Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $750 246 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $43 194 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $79 500 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $110 418 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $102 977 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $20 184 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $258 984 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 982 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $14 056 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $8 868 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $104 149 Secured physical gold – $16 759 Ratesetter* (P2P lending) – $19 968 Bitcoin – $158 330 Raiz* app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 223 Spaceship Voyager* app (Index portfolio) – $2 104 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 395 Total value: $1 712 337 (-$2 653) Asset allocation Australian shares – 40.5% (4.5% under) Global shares – 22.2% Emerging markets shares – 2.4% International small companies – 3.1% Total international shares – 27.7% (2.3% under) Total shares – 68.3% (6.7% under) Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over) Australian bonds – 5.1% International bonds – 10.1% Total bonds – 15.1% (0.1% over) Gold – 7.1% Bitcoin – 9.2% Gold and alternatives – 16.3% (6.3% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. [Chart] Comments The portfolio experienced a small decline this month, with an overall decrease of $2 600. This movement comes after a strong period of expansion through the first half of the year in the value of the portfolio. [Chart] As with last month, the fall occurs despite some significant new investments being made, meaning the absolute size of the decline is somewhat obscured. Renewed concerns about global trade and a relative weakening in the outlook for future earnings played a significant role in the overall movement of the portfolio. [Chart] Once again movements this month within the portfolio have been relatively limited in terms of the size of the portfolio. Equity holdings have declined by around $28 000 when contributions are accounted for, whilst appreciation in the price of gold has offset just over a third of that loss. In fact, despite no recent purchases, the gold component of the portfolio is currently at the highest nominal value it has ever held. On the topic of gold, this 2013 paper (pdf) provides a comprehensive and skeptical empirical analysis of the range of claims made to support holding gold, including tracing the real gold value of average soldiers pay across 2000 years. This month has seen a continuing 'averaging in' of the capital from July distributions. These have been directed to purchases of Vanguard's Australian shares ETF (VAS). This is to bring the allocation closer to my original targets - with my Australian shares allocation currently further underweight than the international shares allocation. Psychologically, a weakening Australian dollar has also made purchasing unhedged international shares more problematic. Risk, volatility, markets and economies There has been significant market volatility this month, and discussion around the future of Australian and global growth in the midst of trade tensions between US and China. In such times, something to remember as this St Louis Federal Reserve piece points out, is that the economy and sharemarket are not the same thing. This means that bad (or good) news for one, does not necessarily imply anything about the other. Missing this has the potential to lead to overconfident investment actions predicated on assumptions of future national economic trends (which will themselves most likely be priced into equity markets well before any retail investor reading the news arrives). The volatility in equity markets has brought out many well-intentioned injunctions to remain calm and fixed on the objective of contributing capital with a long-term view in mind. At times, however, this wise advice can shade into a form of near complacency - for example, for people to invest confident in the knowledge that long-term returns are (almost) guaranteed. No doubt this is generally good advice, directed at easing particularly new investors' concerns about investing at the "wrong" time, and reducing the potential damage from selling into falling markets due to panic. Even as I continue to invest amidst volatility, it is important to reflect on Elroy Dimson's definition that 'risk means more things can happen than will happen', and to consider that the history of equity markets available to us provides only a basis for sound conclusions around what has happened, not what could happen. This is the definition of the risk assumed in markets by investors. None of this is to suggest that starting, saving and regular investing with a view to one's individual risk tolerances are not the most important steps in the path to FI. There is a need to pause, however, and acknowledge that at times common financial independence investment precepts bear a disconcerting passing resemblance to the declaration and mathematical proof offered by famous stock promoter Jacob J Raskob in the well-known Ladies Home Journal (pdf) article exactly 90 years ago. This declaration was that with a steady investment in equities, based on the past patterns of returns, 'everybody ought to be rich'. Nearly 90 years happened to be just before the Great Depression devastated equity markets and employment prospects alike, and US equity investors were behind in nominal terms for around 25 years. Interestingly, however, this New York Times article argues that deflation, higher dividend yields and impacts from changes in the Dow index composition could theoretically have shortened the real losses of any investor to just 4.5 years, provided they possessed the resources and fortitude to hold on to average stocks. Progress Progress against the objectives, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Objective #1 – $1 598 000 (or $67 000 pa) 107.1% 145.4% Objective #2 – $1 980 000 (or $83 000 pa) 86.5% 117.4% Credit card purchases - $73 000 pa 98.3% 133.4% Total expenses - $89 000 pa 80.7% 109.4% Summary Progress against my goals and benchmarks has been static this month, with the exception of the 'total expenditure' benchmark. My detailed review of expenditure last month identified that I could lower this to recognise some double-counting of fixed expenses, and this has meant a leap forward in progress in that aim of 5.8 per cent. This moves the clock forward appreciably for achieving that benchmark. As a general rule, it is always later than we think. For example, on a recent lunch time walk it occurred to me that if my progress to my current FI target of $1.98 million is considered in terms of the length of an ordinary working day, it is currently approximately 3.50pm in the afternoon. Quite late, and just over an hour until heading home. This perspective, of being further towards the tail end than expected, is explored fully and powerfully in the blog Wait but Why here. It helps frame the remaining journey. Viewed in this way, wishing time away seems less useful and fitting than seeking to fill the remaining time with as much meaning, learning, knowledge transmission and patience as feasible. Yet it also explains why in a FI context at this stage sharp changes in investing approach, or commencing new 'side hustles' have limited appeal. Despite it being late afternoon from this one perspective, there are a couple of other considerations or viewpoints. One is the potentially deceptive role of compounding later in the journey, which means that - at least in a stylised world of 'smooth returns' - the end goal is actually likely closer than any purely linear measure would suggest. The other counterpoint to this is that while in my case the absolute journey to FI has involved serious investments over around 18 years, this is not the whole story. Viewed in terms of the average 'age' of dollars actually contributed or invested, the journey of the average dollar in the portfolio has been shorter. In fact, in terms of dollars contributed, around 50 per cent have been contributed since January 2016. So, in some ways, it is more akin to mid-morning for the portfolio as a whole, meaning perhaps that I should not reasonably expect to shade myself under the oak tree just yet. Finally, this month also saw Pat the Shuffler emerge from a short hiatus and provide a honest and well-argued insight into his rethink on investment options between LICs and ETFs. I also enjoyed reading the start of another Australian FI voice at Fire for One. The past few months has also had many interesting podcasts related to FI - from The Escape Artists' Chris Reining on Equity Mates, to a really fascinating practical ChooseFI episode on David Sawyer's on the UK Path to FI. On the slightly more technical and future focused side of finance, the outgoing address of the Bank of England's Governor to the Jackson Hole central bankers gathering provides much food for thought on current and longer term monetary and currency issues, particularly as global bond rates continue to cross the 'zero-bound' into uncharted territory. The post and full charts can be seen here.
This was written for a different group /stocks it got deleted so hopefully this time it works ! Disclaimer I dont want to sell you or recommend anything ! Just my expierence and little help so enjoy. If you want to ask me anything feel free, I try so answer everything. This article is meant to be a small guide that helps you to find your way. Its based on my experience and knowledge, I gained throughout the years. Iam by far no professional. Iam just a guy who loves to invest. If you are new and have few grands to invest this article might help you. My motivation to write this article was because when I turned 20 I got a small loan of 1 milli.... just few grands from my parents plus the savings I made from working. For me it was clear that I want to invest them. I always liked the idea making money and not really working for it! (Spoiler its kinda true and kinda not) So I sum up few steps which will helped me to orientate and maybe help you to make your first investement Step one 1. Where I can Invest?! You can basicly invest in everything. They are infinite options but I just cover up few topics. They are 5 investments I would like to adress.
Krypto n+1. art, old cars, drugs?! (Don’t do or sell drugs pls!)
Stocks (my fav.) I love stocks. I love understanding what the company’s plans are and where they are heading. They are 3 different types of investment strategies.
Short term (daily) That’s usually daily trading. That means you invest and sell on a daily basis. If your not a expert it can frustrating and the chances that you will lose is high. Many people forget that you have to pay taxes and fees so even if you for example invest 1.000 and sell for 1.050 within 20 min. You will have to pay some fees and taxes and with luck, you are where you started. It only makes sense when you invest a lot, otherwise it makes no sense and to be honest I don’t know any person which makes profit with it.
Difficulty: Hard Stress Lvl: High Risk: Medium/High Profit: Usualy bad Investement: Medium
Mid term (6month – 1 year+) You buy some stocks for a longer period of time and hope it will go up soon.
This investment is much easier and less risky than short term. You see a stock going up and up so you invest 5k and hope you can ride a little on this upwards trend. Its fairly easy but you have to keep an eye on the market. A good example is VW it dropped because it has some Image problems. Thats a chance to invest! It will most likely to recover because its the biggest automarker in the world and it did. It happend 1000 times and normaly big companies dont fail they are exception but without risk you dont get anywhere Difficulty: Medium Stress: Medium Risk: Medium Profit: Good Investment: Low
Long term ( 1-2years – 10 years+) Means you want to invest for a long time you are not only interested in making a quick buck but making a slow and steady progress. You are not interested if the stock goes up or down but you are more interested how much divendend they pay. Usualy they go up very slowly but steady. A good example for this type of stock is Royal Dutch (shell) it has ist up and downs but compared to other stocks ist stable. The dividend is 6% which is insanly good no other big company will pay you that every year. You invest 10.000€ and get every year 600€ which means a holiday for free. Also the work is very little, you only have to check the stocks every few weeks/month You wont get rich but its better than having it in the bank.
Difficulty: Easy Stress: Low Risk: Low Profit: Low Investment: Low-Medium Before you invest check the company read the news and get a good overview. I have to admit Iam a fanboy at heart. When a stock of one of my fav. company’s has potential and it does make sense to invest it feels like buying tickets for my favorite Rockband. You support and cheer them on and if they grow you grow with them. BUUUUUUT don’t get my wrong never buy stocks just because you like the company or they have a cool name. All in all Stocks are a great Investment! Real Estate If you want to invest in houses it’s a very save and profitable investment but it depends on your area and country you are coming from. In Germany most objects are overpriced right now so it wouldnt make any sense to buy some. In generell the more money you have the better. They will will be much more people who can afford an cheap flat/condo than the other way around. So expensive objects are better! The optimum is always a shitty apartment in a very good area. Also buying objects in bad areas cause lots of trouble with tenant. Crazy families who refuse to pay, messy people etc. this can end in a stressful situation so beware of that. If you are already rich af than buy propreties Example I went once to an auction and most apartments are sold for double the estimated value. It would take ages (20+ years) to get your investment back. So beware of your market situation. Difficulty: Easy Stress: Usualy low/medium Risk: Low Profit: Medium Investment: High Options Options are basicly betting that a stock with go up or down. You can bet on nearly everything. You can make lot of money very quick and lose everything even quicker. For me option trading is gambling with few extra steps. The difference is you can lose more than you invest. They are cases where people invest 1000€ and lose -120.000€ because suddelny the market changed. If you have gambling problems and tendency to gamble this is absolutly not for you. You can see here (in the forum) lots of bad examples where people going full YOLO on something and lose a ton of money. They save up a little, invest in something even more risky and lose again. I know a friend who makes good money from it but he has a clear head and read many books about this topic he uses software to analyse the situation and everything and he admits that sometimes he doesnt understand what happend. Of course options are not the devils tool but I like to be the voice against it. The truth is in the middle. Iam a person who likes to understand what am I doing. After reading and learning about it, for more than a year I was more confused than before. It is probably because Iam to stupid for it, so I gave it up and moved on. Options are not for me Difficulty: very hard (at least for me) Stress: high Risk: low - very risky Profit: It can be everything Investment: low
Start-ups are also a great business opportunity. I was lucky enough to invest once a little bit into a upcoming company from my firend. He showed me his company and the plans for the future. I already helped him with few shows and stuff so I knew how everything worked. The biggest bullshit I ever saw are the analyse prediction of the future sales. During the last few years I saw few of them and they all predicted that the company will make an absurd amount of money. It looked like high cool project all shiny and with big numbers. To be honest I dont even know who pay these people to make such bullshit predictions, seriously. (as you can see I love talking from my life so forgive me my dear) Long story short I still invested because I understood their model. They existed and already made great progress. I made 50% profit in 3 years. I am still very happy and greatful to had such good chance to invest and would do it again. They biggest question is how do I find such chances ? Tell people you are intersted to invest maybe a friend of you will start an company and you can invest or help you to find such a opprtunity. I went to many start up meetings and talk about a lot with my friends. They dont want to hear it but I tell them anyway and if there is a chance they will call me. Few Tipps: - Look for already existing companys - Most companys give you a very good inside look before you invest! If not watch out they hide something. - Try to understand what they are doing and where they are heading - Look what the will offer you for your money! Difficulty: Medium/hard Stress: Medium/low Risk: Medium/High Profit: Good/Very good Investment: From Low to high
Boy oh boy where to start. I heard to many experts saying yeah krypto thats future boyyyyyy I invested everything BOYYYYYYY and in few month I will be rich BOIIIIII. I heard this story so often that Iam allgeric to it now. This irregulated mess based purly on speculations wasnt anything form me. I didnt invest a cent into it and had lots of chances when bitcoin was 300-500 €. It didnt simply fit into my portfolio. It had no function for me. You could pay for your drugs in the deep web and some hipster pizzerias accepted it but in generell it had no function. So investing into kryptos is just speclutions it has no real fundation what I like. My friends who invested early made a ton of money but all the people on the Hypetrain crashed. Difficulty: I dont know Stress: Depends how much storys you make about it on Instagra´m Risk: Over 9000 Profit: It can be everything from super high to low in just few days Investment: What ever you want, if this is still to expensive for you, make your own coin and hope some Idiot buys it! Now you know my knowledge ehh more like my opionen on few things now its time for……. Step. 2. Get a rough overview Back than I didn’t know where to start so I asked everybody for advice like parents, friends , my parents friends, banks, forums, news etc. and got very different results. Friends and family can be a good source of information how they did it. Of course often investments are impossible to repeat because they are 20 years ago but they can give some good advice. Its nice to hear few cool stories. Example Royal Dutch shell hast wo different stocks. One based in england (B) one Dutch version (A) (explained very simple, not 100% accurate). If you purchase Royal Dutch (A) you have to pay a 15% withholding tax that you wouldnt when you buy Royal Dutch (B). Banks Banks are terrible to ask. I always had shitty experience. The lured me into meetings, only to sell some shitty investment models from which they make some good money of me or some stupid insurence. They are not interested in your loses or profits they are interested to sell you the next stupid investement from which the make money. They never keep their promises and if you loose they will cheer you up and show their new hot investement and so on and so on until you loose and they drop you. My mom works kind of in the finance sector and you wont believe home money older people lost ton of money because of this. I also found few very shady investements opportunities who would be illegal but I wont get into detail cause I dont have 100% proof for it and I also dont want to get in any trouble. As you can see Iam not big fan oft them and do not recommend! News/charts/indexes/Forums For me charts & news works the best. It’s easily so see what’s going on and gives you a great overview. The chart showed that a stock dropped 5%?! Good! Read the news/forums and find out what is going on! It’s that easy you don’t need 15 monitors and crazy software to understand what is happening. Dont make it to complicated! Have an easy overview about the market which you would like to invest. Example My parents invested around a year ago alot in Tesla. It was before Model 3 was released. Tesla had no expierence in mass production and it was clear (at least to me) that they wont have an easy start. They still made no profit and it was the first step to play with the big boys. Back than the Tesla stock was way over 300€ and it was based a lot on speculation and hype. It couldnt live up to they hype and dropped ≈ 30% - 35%.
Few points & strategies
No Emotions Never ever let your emotions guide you. Stocks are not based on a stomach feeling or any other emotion. Dont invest just because you like Elon Musk or Apple or anything. If I have a the chance to invest into one because the timing is right. Always make sure you know what you are doing. When it can wait a day, sleep a night about it and be sober! You can get sucked up into this world you will start giving a shit if you lose one grand and start digging deeper and deeper and lose sense the value of it. Stay sober and now when you have to stop. Making losses It will happend and dont freak out ! They are two options how to handle it and it depends on few things.
Sell them, you see the ship is sinking and their no possibility you can save it than sell it, It hurts but better early than it is to late. Or you find a better possibility to invest for example a start up than its also fine.
Keep it! Turning a Short/Mid-term investement into a long-term investement. Check first if the company will recover from it. For example the VW stocks dropped a lot due it scandal few years ago but it was clear that they will not go bankrupt so after a while they recover from it. Technically the market will grow infinite so after every crash they reach new heights, if you can wait that long the chances are high that you will make some profit and do not lose any money. Maybe the profit will be small but better than losing everything.
Diversity Dont put all your eggs in one basket but also dont but every egg in a different basket. Have a good mix that you can still have an overview about your investment. Dont depend on one investment something bad can always happend. Having a good mix is important some investments will go up and few will go down. Its rearly that everything will crash (expect crises). So you can sell the good one and keep the bad ones until they go up. Scams Online Stick to the basics! They are a ton of scammers online who want to show you a way to make fast money. Its mostly some MLM (multi level markting) aka Pryamide sheme, some buying and reselling some stuff from China or some weird option trading platform where pay in and your money is gone in 5 min without any trace o fit (no chance getting it back)! The Instagram advertisment is so ridiculous and I feel stupid mentioning it but hey if it wouldnt work they wouldnt exist. So please dont be this guy…. Offline I really wanted to invest and have an own start-up. I met many people and visited countless seminars. Few of them offered me to invest but it was a mostly a mess. Onced I got fooled. A friend and I meet a person who had a start up for social media. We had some meetings restaurant he paid everything for us and looked very legit. I worked 3-4 month in this start up 3-4 hours a day, even on weekends for free. Only later to find out I was the only one working in it. (My friend pulled out very early cause he wanted to focus on his PhD) They rest oft he Team did absolute nothing! All the money the company generated was based on my work. They didnt make a lot of money but around 600-800€ a month. The founder spend all the money on vacation and stuff. I never got anything. They wanted to sell me 10% of the company for 15.000€. I always said I need more inside infos, which of course I never got. So I pulled out and they went mad and threaten me to sue me. I feel to this day ashamed that I trusted them and didnt saw it. If you want get into something like this make a contract dont rely on handshakes people will tell you everything and wont keep it. I learned it the hard way Be open minded I met enough people who dont want to share with me their portfolio because they are scared that I will steal something from them. Its stupid! Talk to as many people als possible about your investment. Some amazing things can happend. I meet to many great people because of that and with some I share a 5+ years long friendship maybe we dont share the same ideas but I leanred a lot of it and sometimes I made some profit because of it! Be open ! Prediction & graphic lines When I did my first Investment (it was gold) I read every morning every article about it I could for at least a solid year. Every monring 20 min Thats rouhly 120 hours. Thats time I will never get back. It was wasted time. The news/articels predicted everything. It was a rollercoaster. I believed it in the beginning because it was new to me. It really messed me up and I spend way to much time overthinking. Its fine to see a prediction but the more extreme it is the more it will never happend. Also the trendlines are mostly worthless. I read so many people talking about the 50 day trendline or the 200 day trendline. It only idicates if a stock goes up or down but people interepte everything into it. “Oh yeah you can see the restience at 12.50 if it will drop below everbody will sell“. The next day it dropped and nothing happend. Dont believe everything in the internet. (lol) Keep it simple Dont make it to complicated you can have the best infos and charts and everything in the world and still lose everything. So dont make it to hard for yourself. THE MOST IMPORTANT ADVICE No depts Dont take a credit just because you know a great investment. No matter how much you could earn DO NOT TAKE A CREDIT. This can not only ruin you financily but also your family and your whole life. This is no joke! Make no depts. DO NOT MAKE FUCKING DEBTS! My Strategy It is a mixture of long term and mid-term stock investments. Its very easy I invested in: Before I buy some - Royal Dutch because of the high dividend - Deutsche Bank when the hit nearly a all time low hoping to recover (still hoping ☹ ) - Lufthansa because they bought few airlines and hopefully will grow but its not (thanks Greta !) - Tesla because they are low and made some good deals for the future. (update, sold it and made 30-35% in 6 weeks) Am I rich or making a lot of money?! Hell no! But Iam making enough to pay for my holidays and few extras. I am patient enough to sit out bad times. I never sold anything with loose and I want to keep it that way. I like having a clean record. Thanks for reading and feel free to ask my everything.
Bitcoin Jumps Over $9,000 As The Crypto Sector Recovers
The World’s Leading Cryptocurrency Managed To Stay Over The Psychological Resistance Level Of $9,000; Most Of The Top-100 Cryptos Are Making Gains After a volatile week, Bitcoin showed its first signs of recovery. Bitcoin’s price went over the $9,000 technical resistance level. The bullish momentum is strong, making a 3,5% price increase on March 5. The main reason behind the price increase, according to crypto experts, is Bitcoin skyrocketing from the 200-day moving average support zone of $8,700. Looking at the technical analysis, traders are noticing some interesting bullish set-ups, which could further boost Bitcoin’s price. Also, Bitcoin may soon form a “head and shoulders” price pattern, which means bulls may even try to overtake the $9,500 level. Bitcoin started its bullish runs as soon as the price per 1 BTC reached $8,500. According to the one-hour Bitcoin chart, the world’s largest cryptocurrency recorded a candle above the exponential moving average (EMA) mark, which indicates a robust bullish presence in the range of $8,800 to $8,900. However, Bitcoin’s price may see a substantial set-back, as Andrew Bailey will be Bank of England’s new Governor. Bailey is known for his bearish attitude towards cryptocurrencies, and Bitcoin, in particular. The former head of the Financial Conduct Authority warned in 2017 that Bitcoin “has no real value.” He repeated his words at the Treasury Select Committee that “Bitcoin has no intrinsic value,” and people should be prepared “to lose all their money if they want to buy Bitcoin.” Bailey will become the new Bank of England Governor on March 16. Meanwhile, Bailey’s former administration – the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), accused crypto exchange BitMEX of illicitly providing financial services in the United Kingdom without first receiving authorization from the FCA. The published reports also showed the benefits for investors for trading on authorized and registered exchange platforms – access to various services like Financial Ombudsman, as well as the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. In the altcoin sector, most of the Ethereum-based ERC-20 tokens marked price increases. Ethereum is up 4,23% to trade at $232.44 as of press time. The biggest gainers of the ERC20 pack are Basic Attention Token (BAT) with 5,33% price increase, and 0x (ZRX), which almost made its gains double-digit. TRON (TRX) is also up with 5%, while Tezos (XTZ) marked a 10,5% price increase. The only loser in the top-20 is ChainLink (LINK) which is down 3,20%
Daily analysis of cryptocurrencies 20191015(Market index 39 — Fear state)
https://preview.redd.it/362pt9cbyos31.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1bd6935d0b9f27bc215a7ceb9a4dd14a6b4c502c Indian Supreme Court Postpones Crypto Case To November The Supreme Court of India on Oct 15 once again postponed hearing the case against the crypto banking restrictions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The central bank has replied to crypto exchanges’ representation as directed by the court, which was supposed to resume hearing the case on Oct 15. Ripple Battles Crypto FUD: ‘99.9% Of All XRP Trading, We Have Nothing To Do With’ Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse says the San Francisco startup has dramatically reduced the amount of XRP it’s selling over-the-counter. Each day, Ripple calculates the total amount of XRP sold across all exchanges based on volume data from CryptoCompare. It then sells 10 basis points of that total volume or 0.10% of its own XRP. “One of the things that we actually agree with is, we try to have a constructive way to engage the market by saying, ‘We’re going to sell OTC and we’re going to sell programmatically at ten basis points of daily market activity’ … Every day Ripple is 10 basis points of the overall XRP volume. If there’s $100 million worth of daily volume before Ripple does anything, Ripple would be $100,000 in sales. 99.9% of all XRP trading, we have nothing to do with,” he stated. Bank Of England Governor: Libra May Be An Alternative To The UK Payment System Bank of England Governor Mark Carney states that Facebook’s cryptocurrency Libra may be an alternative to the payment system in the UK since the latter is not good enough, Jin10.com reports on Oct 15. CMCC, UnionPay And Others Announce The Formal Test Of Blockchain Service Network (BSN) China National Information Center, China Mobile Communications Group (CMCC) and China UnionPay jointly announced the formal test of blockchain service network (BSN) designed and built by six institutions in Beijing. BSN is top-level planned by China National Information Center and independently developed and successfully put into practice by China UnionPay and CMCC adopting the relevant blockchain technology and existing network resources and data centers. It is a nation-wide blockchain service infrastructure platform that spans public networks, regions and institutions in China.
Encrypted project calendar（October 15, 2019）
RUFF/RUFF Token:Ruff will end the three-month early bird program on October 15thKAT/Kambria:Kambria (KAT) exchanges ERC20 KAT for a 10% bonus on BEP2 KAT-7BB, and the token exchange reward will end on October 15.BTC/Bitcoin:The Blockchain Technology Investment Summit (CIS) will be held in Los Angeles from October 15th to 16th.OTOCASH (OTO):15 October 2019 Escodex Shutdown “ All OTO HOLDERs who have assets on ESCODEX EXCHANGE to immediately withdraw your assets before October 15th, 2019 4:00 PM”(CRYPTO):15 October 2019 Hard Fork Summit Hard Fork Summit 2019 by TNW . “Where finance and business meets tech.” Amsterdam, October 15–17.Cardano (ADA):15 October 2019 NYC Meetup “Next week on October 15th Nathan Kaiser, Chairperson of the Cardano Foundation, will be in attendance to meet community members in NYCFunFair (FUN):15 October 2019 Marketing AMA “The FunFair Marketing AMA… will be held on Tuesday the 15th of October at 2pm in the Live team chat channel on DiscordArk (ARK):15 October 2019 ARK Core v2.6 on Devnet “We are very excited to announce #ARK Core v2.6 will be launching on #Devnet, October 15th, 2019! “DigiByte (DGB):15 October 2019 BitMart Listing DigiByte (DGB) will be listed on BitMart Exchange on October 15, 2019. The following trading pair will be available: DGB/BTC.ThoreNext (THX):15 October 2019 Staking Goes Live “Staking live from 15 OCT 2019.”
Encrypted project calendar（October 16, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The 2019 Blockchain Life Summit will be held in Moscow, Russia from October 16th to 17th.MIOTA/IOTA:IOTA (MIOTA) IOTA will host a community event on the theme of “Technology Problem Solving and Testing IoT Devices” at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles on October 16.ETH/Ethereum:Ethereum launches Istanbul (Istanbul) main network upgrade, this main network upgrade involves 6 code upgrades.QTUM/Qtum:Qtum (QTUM) Qtum main network hard fork is scheduled for October 16.(CRYPTO): and 1 other 16 October 2019 Supply Chains Unblocked Supply Chains Unblocked in London from 9:30 AM — 6 PM.Binance Coin (BNB):16 October 2019 Singapore Meetup “Bring your friends to come along with, & it will be FUN! With snacks and drinks.”IoTeX (IOTX):16 October 2019 Mainet Beta “The next evolution of IoTeX blockchain, secure IoT hardware, and decentralized identity is coming October 16 — mark your calendars.”Selfkey (KEY):16 October 2019 Corporate Wallet Release “Soon, wallet users will be able to manage corporate profiles and identity attributes.”Cardano (ADA):16 October 2019 Washington D.C. Meetup “Nathan Kaiser, Chairperson of the Cardano Foundation, will join the community in Washington DC on Oct 16, and talk about the recent
Encrypted project calendar（October 17, 2019）
Holo (HOT):17 October 2019 Redgrid AMA “Join us for the AMA with RedGrid on October 17th. Submit your questions before the AMA on our Holochain Dev Forum.”IOST (IOST):17 October 2019 Breeding Competition Ends “Join IOST 2nd Breeding Competition by@FishChainGamenow! The competition only lasts till 17 Oct”Aragon (ANT):17 October 2019 Seoul Meetup “You are invited to join@licuendefor a meetup and presentation on ‘Aragon and DAOs: What’s next after ICOs and DeFi?’”Skycoin (SKY):17 October 2019 NYC Skywire Meetup NYC Skywire Mainnet Meetup in NYC from 6–8 PM.Horizen (ZEN):17 October 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.
Encrypted project calendar（October 18, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The SEC will give a pass on the VanEck/SolidX ETF on October 18th and make a final decisionHB/HeartBout:HeartBout (HB) will officially release the Android version of the HeartBout app on October 18.OKB (OKB):18 October 2019 Rotterdam Meetup “Meet us in Rotterdam on 18 Oct as we partner up with Crypto010 Meetup to bring you a talk on ‘Decentralized Finance’.”HeartBout (HB):18 October 2019 Android Version “18th of October 2019 will be officially released Android version of HeartBout app.”BTU Protocol (BTU):and 2 others 18 October 2019 Paris Blockchain Summit The event will gather major international key players of the Blockchain ecosystem including well-known influencers, investors, government…
Encrypted project calendar（October 19, 2019）
PI/PCHAIN Network:The PCHAIN (PI) backbone (Phase 5, 82 nodes, 164, 023, 802 $ PI, 7 candidates) will begin on October 19.LINK/ChainLink:Diffusion 2019 will be held in Berlin, Germany from October 19th to 20thDeepBrain Chain (DBC):19 October 2019 (or earlier) Deploy Main Chain “Deploy Main Chain,” during the third week of October.General Event (CRYPTO):and 1 other 19 October 2019Free State Blockchain “This “unconference” style event brings together some of the top financial tech innovators, researchers, company leaders, and other…”PCHAIN (PI):19 October 2019 Main Chain Voting “Main chain: Epoch 5, 82 nodes, 164,023,802 $PI, 7 Candidates, voting will start on Oct. 19th.”Nash Exchange (NEX):19 October 2019 Nash Anniversary Nash will present their work from the third quarter of 2019. Team members will be present and to answer your questions in person.
Encrypted project calendar（October 20, 2019）
GameCredits (GAME):20 October 2019 (or earlier) Mining Reward Drop GameCredits mining reward will be cut in half at block 2519999 (~October 20). This will be the 4th halvening of the GAME mining reward!Aeternity (AE):20 October 2019 Starfleet 3 App Deadline #Starfleet3 is happening in Malta and you have by October 20th to apply!
Encrypted project calendar（October 21, 2019）
KNC/Kyber Network:The official online hackathon of the Kyber Network (KNC) project will end on October 21st, with more than $42,000 in prize money.Horizen (ZEN):21 October 2019 Sidechains Alpha Release Horizen releasing the alpha version of industry first decentralized and unfederated sidechains.Horizen (ZEN):21 October 2019 Updated Whitepaper Horizen releasing an updated whitepaper.
Encrypted project calendar（October 22, 2019）
ZRX/0x:The 0x protocol (ZRX) Pantera blockchain summit will be held on October 22.Locus Chain (LOCUS):22 October 2019 Public Test Begins Public test runs for three days from October 22nd to October 24th.
Encrypted project calendar（October 23, 2019）
MIOTA/IOTA:IOTA (MIOTA) IOTA will host a community event on October 23rd at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles with the theme “Connecting the I3 Market and Experiencing Purchase and Sales Data.”BTC/Bitcoin:The WBS World Blockchain Summit (Middle East) will be held in Dubai from October 23rd to 24th.Cardano (ADA) and 1 other:23 October 2019 WBS Dubai “One of a kind gathering of 500+ curated & pre-qualified investors, CEOs, CIOs, CTOs, Heads of Blockchain, Chief Digital OfficersCloakCoin (CLOAK):23 October 2019 (or earlier) CloakCoin Competition “CloakCoin competition : solve the CloakCoin ENIGMA transaction, 3rd round.”Loom Network (LOOM):23 October 2019 Singapore Meetup “Unstack the Stack Series: Loom Network” from 6:30–8:30 PM (SST).
Encrypted project calendar（October 24, 2019）
BCN/Bytecoin:Bytecoin (BCN) released the hidden amount of the Bytecoin block network on October 24.
Encrypted project calendar（October 25, 2019）
ADA/Cardano:Cardano (ADA) The Ada community will host a community gathering in the Dominican Republic for the first time on October 25.
Encrypted project calendar（October 26, 2019）
KAT/Kambria:Kambria (KAT) Kambria will host the 2019 Southern California Artificial Intelligence and Data Science Conference in Los Angeles on October 26th with IDEAS.BTC/Bitcoin:CoinAgenda Global Summit will be held in Las Vegas from October 26th to 28th
Encrypted project calendar（October 28, 2019）
LTC/Litecoin:Litecoin (LTC) 2019 Litecoin Summit will be held from October 28th to October 29th in Las Vegas, USABTC/Bitcoin:Mt.Gox changes the debt compensation plan submission deadline to October 28ZEC/Zcash:Zcash (ZEC) will activate the Blossom Agreement on October 28th
Encrypted project calendar（October 29, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The 2nd World Encryption Conference (WCC) will be held in Las Vegas from October 29th to 31st.
Encrypted project calendar（October 30, 2019）
MIOTA/IOTA:IOTA (MIOTA) IOTA will host a community event on October 30th at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles on the topic “How to store data on IOTA Tangle.”
Encrypted project calendar（November 1, 2019）
INS/Insolar:The Insolar (INS) Insolar wallet and the redesigned Insolar Block Explorer will be operational on November 1, 2019.
Encrypted project calendar（November 6, 2019）
STEEM/Steem:The Steem (STEEM) SteemFest 4 conference will be held in Bangkok from November 6th to 10th.
Encrypted project calendar（November 8, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The 2nd Global Digital Mining Summit will be held in Frankfurt, Germany from October 8th to 10th.
Encrypted project calendar（November 9, 2019）
CENNZ/Centrality:Centrality (CENNZ) will meet in InsurTechNZ Connect — Insurance and Blockchain on October 9th in Auckland.
https://preview.redd.it/0hzdpjdfyos31.png?width=504&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c2ab05fcaf1f0990e0d1b48db72bc91dadba3a1 In the past three sessions, there were mostly range moves in bitcoin below the $8,400 resistance against the US Dollar. Earlier, BTC price declined below the $8,200 support area and the 100 hourly simple moving average. A new weekly low was formed near $8,148 and recently the price started a decent upside correction. It broke the $8,200 and $8,300 levels to avoid any further losses. Moreover, there was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last slide from the $8,471 high to $8,148 swing low. The price even spiked above the $8,400 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. However the upward move was capped and the bulls failed to gain momentum above $8,400. It seems like the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last slide from the $8,471 high to $8,148 swing low acted as a strong resistance. At the moment, the price is trading in a range below the $8,400 resistance area. Additionally, there is a new breakout pattern forming with resistance near $8,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Above the triangle resistance, bitcoin price could face resistance near the $8,460 level. A successful close above $8,460 and a follow through above the $8,500 resistance might set the pace for a fresh increase in the near term. On the downside, the triangle support is near the $8,280 level. If there is a downside break, the price could retest the main $8,200 support area. Should there be a daily close below the $8,200 support, the price may perhaps continue to slide towards the $8,000 and $7,800 support levels. Review previous articles:https://email@example.com Telegram： https://t.me/Lay126 Twitter：https://twitter.com/mianhuai8 Facebook：https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100022246432745 Reddi：https://www.reddit.com/useliuidaxmn LinkedIn：https://www.linkedin.com/in/liu-wei-294a12176/
Daily analysis of cryptocurrencies 20190917(Market index 41 — Fear state)
https://preview.redd.it/57enzyn7v4n31.png?width=432&format=png&auto=webp&s=7040e86ccdfafeae9a6859eb4c495f096a3c7ece Germany’s Legislative Coalition Has A Standing Agreement To Prevent Market-Relevant Private Stablecoins Thomas Heilmann of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) says Germany’s legislative coalition already has a standing agreement to prevent the operation of any “market-relevant private stablecoin.” As earlier reported by CoinNess, Germany’s federal cabinet will approve its blockchain strategy announced back in June 2019. While the move signals the country’s intent to be a part of the emerging global economy, the government-run ‘Bundes-chain’ might sound the latest death knell for Libra in Europe. Libra Representatives Will Meet Officials From 26 Central Banks Facebook will be quizzed by global regulators on its planned Libra coin project amid concerns from EU governments over the threat the digital currency poses to financial stability. Representatives of Libra will meet officials from 26 central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, in Basel on Monday (Sept 16) in the first major encounter between Libra’s founders and policymakers since Facebook unveiled its plans to upend global payments, officials told the FT. Uruguay Approves Crowdfunding Law That Could Be Applied To ICOs On Sept. 12, Cointelegraph en Español reported that the government of Uruguay approved a bill to promote entrepreneurship, which will regulate collective financing or crowdfunding platforms, and that could be applied to some ICOs. Lawyer Paula Rodríguez Medalla added: “Without a doubt, this rule supposes a new legal framework for some ICOs dedicated to collective financing, so it will be essential to be attentive to the regulation that the Central Bank of Uruguay issues on the subject.” Iran will issue documents to legalize encrypted mining The Ministry of Industry, Mines and Trade of Iran is about to issue a document that will pave the way for the legalization of cryptocurrency mining for local and foreign citizens. The main points of the document involve: establishing an encryption mining business license system; the commercial institution license can last for 12 months and can be renewed; the encrypted mining power consumption limit is specified (no more than 30 kilowatts, but the power consumption is too low) Issue a license) and so on.
Encrypted project calendar（September 17, 2019）
ZEN/Horizen:The official team of Horizen (ZEN) will hold a community gathering in Strasbourg, France on September 17th.
Encrypted project calendar（September 18, 2019）
OKB/OKB:OKB (OKB) On September 18th, OKEx will hold an institutional meeting in London to share the regulatory environment issues facing encryption organizations.
Encrypted project calendar（September 19, 2019）
NRG/Energi:Energi (NRG) Energi will launch a trading competition on the KuCoin platform on September 9th. By September 19th, 800 NRG will be presented to the top 470 participants.ADA/Cardano:The Cardano (ADA) project official will host the Wyoming hackathon from September 19th to 22nd.KIN/Kin:The Kin (KIN) project team will host a community gathering in Toronto on September 19.BTC/Bitcoin:The 2019 Open Core Summit will be held in San Francisco from September 19th to 20th.BSV/Bitcoin SV:The Bitcoin SV (BSV) BSV Eco Conference will be held in Hangzhou, China on September 19th. OKEX will jointly host the event as a strategic partner of BSV.
Encrypted project calendar（September 20, 2019）
NULS / NULS:The NULS 2.0 Beta hackathon will be held from September 20th to September 21st, 2019.AE/Aeternity:Aeternity (AE) will hold “Cosmos One” conference in Prague, Czech Republic on September 20thCOCOS/COCOS:The Cocos-BCX (COCOS) Oasis Arena hackathon will take place from September 20th to 22nd in Shanghai, China (“GO Shanghai”).RVN/Ravencoin:The Ravencoin (RVN) Ravencoin project team will host the “Ravencoin Asia 2019” party in Seoul, South Korea on September 20.
Encrypted project calendar（September 21, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The 6th FINWISE Global Summit Macau will be held from September 21st to 22nd. Distributed Financial Technology (DeFi) is the main topic of this conference.OKB/OKB:OKB (OKB) OKEx The Africa Cryptour series of talks in Kenya will take place on September 21 in Nairobi.
Encrypted project calendar（September 23, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:Bakkt, the digital asset platform led by ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange and the world’s second largest trading group, will launch a bitcoin physical delivery futures contract on September 23.EOS/EOS:EOS main network is expected to upgrade version 1.8 on September 23
Encrypted project calendar（September 24, 2019）
ENG/Enigma:Enigma (ENG) ENG main network token snapshot will end on September 24, the original start time is August 26.
Encrypted project calendar（September 26, 2019）
ADA/Cardano:The Cardano (ADA) Cardano community will host a party in Washington, DC on September 26.
Encrypted project calendar（September 27, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:Cripto Latin Fest will be held in Cordoba, Argentina from September 27th to 29th.
Encrypted project calendar（September 28, 2019）
ADA/Cardano:Cardano (ADA) Cardano (ADA) 2nd Anniversary, Cardinal Foundation, IOHK and EMURGO main members will participate in community celebrations in Plovdiv, Bulgaria on September 28.
Encrypted project calendar（September 29, 2019）
GAME/GameCredits:GameCredits (GAME) is expected to perform hard forks on September 29th at block height 2519999
Encrypted project calendar（September 30, 2019）
INS/Insolar:Insolar (INS) will be on September 30thERD/Elrond:Elrond (ERD) will conduct main network test on September 30thNULS/NULS:The NULS team will plan to beta the ChainBOX in the third quarter.CS/Credits:Credits (CS) will exchange tokens and bug rewards in the third quarterQTUM/Qtum:Quantum Chain (QTUM) is expected to complete lightning network beta in the third quarterXEM/NEM:New World Bank (XEM) will release mobile wallet and computer wallet in the third quarterHC/HyperCash: hypercash (HC) will complete community management agreement in the third quarter
Encrypted project calendar（October 01, 2019）
HT/Huobi Token:The financial base public link jointly created by Firecoin and Nervos is expected to be open source in October.RVN/Ravencoin:Ravencoin (RVN) Ravencoin will perform a hard fork on October 1.ADA/Cardano:Cardano (ADA) plans to hold technical consensus meeting in Amsterdam on October 1stXRC/Bitcoin Rhodium:Bitcoin Rhodium (XRC) will record account balance awards on October 1stPPC/Peercoin:Peercoin (PPC) will perform Peercoin v0.8 (code tang lang) hard fork on October 1st
Encrypted project calendar（October 02, 2019）
BNB/Binance Coin:The 2019 DELTA Summit will be held in Malta from October 2nd to 4th. The DELTA Summit is Malta’s official blockchain and digital innovation campaign.CAPP/Cappasity:The Cappasity (CAPP) London Science and Technology Festival will be held from October 2nd to 3rd, when the Cappasity project will be attended by the Science and Technology Festival.
Yesterday, we discussed the importance of the $10,250 support for bitcoin against the US Dollar. The pair remained in a negative zone below the $10,400 resistance level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. As a result, there was a bearish reaction below the key $10,300 and $10,250 support levels. During the decline, there was a break below yesterday’s highlighted breakout pattern with support near $10,320 on the hourly chart of BTC/USD. The decline gained pace below the $10,200 level. Moreover, the price spiked below $10,150 and tested the $10,000 support level. Recently, it recovered and climbed back above $10,300. However, the upward move was capped by the $10,350 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. More importantly, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $10,340 on the same chart. The pair is currently declining and is trading below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent recovery from the $10,000 swing low to $10,348 high. On the downside, an immediate support is near the $10,175 level. It represents the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent recovery from the $10,000 swing low to $10,348 high. The main supports on the downside are near the $10,000 and $9,900 levels. On the upside, there are many resistances near the $10,300, $10,350 and $10,400 levels. The main resistance is still near the $10,500 level. A successful break above the $10,400 level and a follow through above $10,500 is needed for upside acceleration in the near term. Review previous articles:https://firstname.lastname@example.org Telegram： https://t.me/Lay126 Twitter：https://twitter.com/mianhuai8 Facebook：https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100022246432745 Reddi：https://www.reddit.com/useliuidaxmn LinkedIn：https://www.linkedin.com/in/liu-wei-294a12176/
[Article] Debunking the theory that a "deflationary" currency cannot be the basis of a functioning economy
Many economists argue that a low level of inflation (approx 1-2%) is required in order to maintain a productive and functioning economy. This is evidenced in the fact that most central banks have low level inflation as a target of their monetary policy objectives: The European Central Bank, Bank of England, and the Federal Reserve to name a few . As a result, detractors of bitcoin say that it can never become a currency as it is deflationary in nature . That is, there will only ever be 21 million bitcoin in existence. This means that over time once all of these coins are in circulation, there will be no new supply of bitcoin, and so any demand increase will result in a price increase. Currently there is around 4.3% annual inflation of Bitcoin's supply , and by 2028 that is projected to fall to below 1% . Furthermore, if the anonymous 'Satoshi' has truly vanished then there are another 1M coins out of circulation ; and some studies suggest the total number of lost bitcoin is nearing 3M coins , a number that can only increase over time. Due to these 'missing' bitcoins, the supply of Bitcoin will become increasingly scarce, and so their value is expected to rise given a constant or increasing level of demand. This means that goods and services will fall relative to their bitcoin valuation, resulting in deflation (deflation = the price level of goods & services in an economy decreasing). The traditional argument then goes as follows: due to goods & services becoming cheaper over time, saving is incentivized. After all, why would one buy a car for 1000 bits when it can be purchased for 998 bits tomorrow? A common example people point to as evidence for this is the infamous 10,000 BTC pizza purchase in 2010 which at today's valuation costs 100M USD . However, this argument against bitcoin as a currency is flawed on two levels. (1) When pointing to examples such as the pizza purchase, or the rapid increase in bitcoin's value, people are misattributing the cause of the deflation by assuming it is to do with bitcoins supply. In fact, in the years since the pizza purchase, the total supply of bitcoin has increased from 3 million BTC to 16 million BTC. This is a more inflationary supply increase than even the USD over the same period of time . The real causes of bitcoin's price increase (and thus deflationary properties) in this period can be attributed to the parabolic nature of adoption that bitcoin has seen since its creation . When looking at the practical nature of bitcoin as a world currency, and then drawing stats from the coin in its infancy, you are committing the fallacy of false equivalency  as the evidence presented is from a period of increasing adoption while a global currency would imply full or near full adoption. At the 'early adopters' stage we will see major +/- % fluctuations regularly, however if worldwide adoption was to be achieved then these value changes would be far smaller and much less significant. For example, the dollar, the world reserve currency, fluctuates on average by 92 pips in a day (1 pip = 0.0001 USD). Applying this same level of stability to a mass adopted bitcoin, and we see that the price fluctuations would become far smaller and less significant the greater the capitalization of the currency. Thus, in order to assess the viability of bitcoin as a world currency, one must start with a situation where bitcoin is a world currency in the first place. (2) The second flaw of this argument is to assume that deflation will always lead to a deflationary spiral and thus collapse of the economy. With this same logic, one could argue that inflation will always lead to an inflationary spiral and thus an economy collapse as people see price levels rising, and thus are incentivized to spend their money NOW before they increase any further. This then leads prices to rise further and the effect to spiral out of control. CLEARLY though we can see that inflation does not always lead to an inflationary spiral as all western economies operate on an inflationary model. And thus to try use this logic that is empirically flawed as an argument of deflation is self defeating: Levels of inflation will not always lead to inflationary spirals, and levels of deflation will not always lead to deflationary spirals. It is this excessive quantity of inflation or deflation that will result in a spiral, not the attributes of inflation or deflation in isolation. In the same way that 1-2% inflation per year is small enough to not trigger an inflationary spiral of panic, a small amount of deflation on a yearly basis would not trigger this deflationary spiral. In fact, we have evidence to support this claim. In the UK over the period of 1983-2006 we had interests rates that were higher than the rate of inflation , this would mean that consumers are incentivized to save instead of spend as they would have greater purchasing power in the future(i.e. there is deflationary pressure), yet we did not see an economic meltdown during these times. What we actually saw over this time period was a DECREASE in the savings ratio of the average UK household , from around 15% of income to just under 10% despite the fact that any money saved would have compounded 5% more inflation adjusted purchasing power per annum. At first this might seem to be irrational behavior but there are some speculative reasons as to why this was the case. One theory suggests that consumers do not notice inflationary or deflationary pressures in small quantities and thus do not make economic decisions based on them. Another one would say that despite the deflationary pressures, there are some purchases that are necessary and therefore cannot be delayed. i.e. the supermarket shop might be a small % cheaper in 1 years time, but it is necessary to do it now in order to survive. Finally, it can also be argued that as deflationary pressures make consumers feel wealthier, they are more inclined to go out and spend this wealth, thus decreasing their savings rate. The arguments presented above show that perhaps Keynesian economic thinking is too narrow, and that an economy can be run on the back of a currency with deflationary pressures as these pressures in the right quantity will not result in a deflationary spiral, and have the advantage of not eroding the wealth of the population in a way that benefits the wealthy and hinders the poor (see: threshold effects of inflation for more information on this matter). While this article has argued that a deflationary currency can run an economy, it is a topic of future article to discuss which model of the economy is preferable. Till next time, Logical Crypto Sources:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation_targeting#Summary  https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/12/why-bitcoin-will-never-be-a-currency-in-2-charts/282364/  https://charts.bitcoin.com/chart/inflation#lf  https://cointelegraph.com/storage/uploads/view/1d067f3721f10f0a76439de9860a4e54.png  https://qz.com/1107843/bitcoins-btc-new-record-price-of-6000-means-satoshi-nakamoto-is-worth-5-9-billion/  http://uk.businessinsider.com/nearly-4-million-bitcoins-have-been-lost-forever-study-says-2017-11  https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Laszlo_Hanyecz  https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/58/MB%2C_M1_and_M2_aggregates_from_1981_to_2012.png  https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-total?timespan=all  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_equivalence  https://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/inflation-interest-rates-1945-2011.png  https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/personal-savings
US House of Representatives: Congress will continue to review Facebook’s Libra.
Amazon AWS is now BUG to a number of exchanges trading abnormalities 0.3 US dollars turnover more than 40 BTC. 3. Insiders: The central bank will issue licenses related to the central bank’s digital currency.
Coin Security will provide lifelong membership services to KYC users and announce the latest investigation of the leak.
At least three early supporters of the Libra Currency Association considered withdrawing for regulatory reasons.
The Bank of England Governor urged the Libra-type reserve currency to end the dominance of the dollar.
Central Bank: The development of electronic payment instruments with digital currency characteristics has made progress.
Bank of Japan executives: We promote bitcoin, but only for control.
The US Food and Drug Administration will use blockchains to improve the review and recall of pharmaceuticals and medical products.
BTM/Bytom:Bytom will host the Bytom DevCon 2 technical competition on August 24th. The Bytom will reward the winners and support related projects.BNB/Binance Coin:The currency-based Launchpad will be launched on the Perlin project on August 24th, still using the BNB position snapshot lottery mode. The Launchpad IEO hardtop is 6,700,000 USD.
Encrypted project calendar（August 25, 2019）
CHX/Own:The Own project will launch the SillyCoin Valley game product on August 25.
Encrypted project calendar（August 26, 2019）
ICX/ICON:ICON(ICX)ICONists will vote for P-Reps and receive ICX awards starting August 26.MBL/Moviebloc:MovieBloc will share details about the MovieBloc service and wallet features in MovieBloc Service Preview 2 on August 26th.ETHOS/ETHOS Token:ETHOS Token (ETHOS) BitMart The first ETHOS Token Trading Contest will be closed on August 26, and participating users can divide 50,000 ETHOS.
Encrypted project calendar（August 27, 2019）
MAID/MaidSafeCoin:MaidSafeCoin Internet Coin (MAID) will host the 2019 Turing Festival in Edinburgh from August 27th to 29th.SC/Siacoin:Siacoin (SC) Pluralsight LIVE was held in Salt Lake City from August 27th to 29th, 2019.
Encrypted project calendar（August 28, 2019）
NULS/NULS:The NULS 2.0 Beta hackathon will be held from July 8th to August 28th, 2019.ZLA/Zilla:ZILLA (ZLA)’s complimentary $3,500 GD Token event will end on August 28.
Encrypted project calendar（August 29, 2019）
ICX/ICON:ICON(ICX)ICON will meet with HPB_Global in Korea on August 29th, and Asian Market Business Director Daniel Kwak will deliver a speech and will answer questions with participants.TYPE/Typerium:A 100-day countdown from Typerium will end on August 29th, and the project officially calls SecondComing.ONE/Harmony:The first phase of the Pangea project launched by Harmony is over, and the second phase will begin on August 29.KICK/KickCoin:KickCoin will be exchanged for KickToken for an exchange time of August 29, which will receive nearly 150% of the reward.
Encrypted project calendar（August 30, 2019）
XDCE/XinFin Network:2019 TraceFinancial webinar will be held on August 30thWAX/WAX Token:WAX TokenSwap (WAX) to August 30, ERC-20 WAX Token token converted to WAX Token CutoffUGAS/Ultrain:Ultrain community news, after the main network mapping starts on August 7, all UGAS holders must complete the registration of the Ultrain main wallet account by August 30th.
Encrypted project calendar（August 31, 2019）
ADX/AdEx:ADEX (ADX) will release the Validator Stack version 2.0 in AugustDADI/DADI:DADI will release the network CLI on August 31, with Stargates to support network services; and release Self Onboarding on the same day to allow the network to be more open.MITH/Mithril:The Mithril (MITH) team decided to implement the first MITH token destruction program on August 31.COS/Contentos:Contentos test network v0.5 “Jupiter” will be launched on August 31, this is the last version of the test before the main online line, alternate release.
Starting with almost nothing, I made almost $500,000 gambling with Bitcoin. I then lost it all in about 60 seconds. I am now $50k in debt and will most likely lose my job, my visa status, my fiancee. AMA.
EDIT: 01/12/14 EDIT: Thank you all for taking the time to read this. The overwhelming majority of your responses have been very supportive, and I feel that I got a lot of perspective. I am in tears right now, because in my self-loathing state I really did not expect so much positive feedback. I need to come clean to my fiancee, because that is the one variable that I can control. This is a story of luck, hope, greed, despair, stupidity. Over the past 10 days I have gone one a rollercoaster ride of the full spectrum of human emotion. I am trying to live down what happened, and maybe this AMA will help me. I feel this can work both ways too, and I am grateful for any advice I receive. Hopefully also it will help you! I say that I hope my story will help you and I really mean that any of you, because let me start off by saying that I am not a gambler, and I have never even exhibited gambling tendencies before. I am a risktaker and I enjoy new experiences, but I have always considered myself responsible and I have a sound understanding of the maths behind gambling. I know that the house always wins. But after what happened to me, how quickly I got sucked in, how much money I made, and how it all ended just days later, I honestly do not feel that I was fully in control of my actions. If it happened to me, it can happen to you too, and I sincerely hope that after reading this, it never will. Let me give some more specific details, so that you have a more complete picture. I will fill in the rest in response to your questions. EDIT: I ran out of space for proof, please see comments.
My name is Bob. I am a grad student in math, living in California1 .
I got into Bitcoin as an investment. The last 15 days or so have been extremely tempestuous for Bitcoin, and the events of this AMA coincided with the biggest crash in Bitcoin's history.
Around late march I started learning how to play blackjack, just as a fun hobby. I am a multi-faceted person with many interests, and this was just another mini-hobby that I took up. I was very interested in basic strategy, and was hoping to use it at a casino on our 2-year anniversary with my fiancee. She loves to "gamble" in a very innocent sense of the word: she and her girlfriends will go to a casino, have some drinks and have fun losing a bunch of $25 promotional vouchers. I wanted to come with her and impress her by scraping a small profit with basic strategy2 .
I then discovered bitZino (www.bitzino.com), and I realized that the best way to learn basic strategy is to have a small financial stake to motivate me. I played for small stakes, made some money, then took a couple of bad beats. I lost most of my investment profits and was down to about $4,000. Then I switched to roulette3 . I quickly recouped my losses, and began to lose myself. This was the beginning of the end.
On April 1, Bitcoin broke $100 for the first time. I played more and more, and the value of my winnings increased more and more. I was suddenly into big money.
By April 10, I had worked my way up to almost $500,000. I realized how lucky I was to have this amount of money. It was Bitcoin, but it was one click away from being in my bank account: this was real money.
That morning, the crash began. I kept playing. On April 10 I lost all my profits. (I don't want to clutter the summary with specific details, but if you are interested, I posted them below.)
At this point I was in full-tilt mode. Mt.Gox was closed for a 24-hour cooldown following the crash, but even this 24-hour period was not enough for me. A part of me just shut off, and this was when I made the Really Big Mistake. I dipped into my student tuition loan (around $50,000). I turned into an animal, and I lost everything.
I literally went almost mad at this point. Out of grief I contacted bitzino and exchanged some pitiful emails. They were very supportive, emotionally4 . I am not even sure what I hoped to achieve (I did not sleep for 2 days, drank and took a lot of anti-anxiety meds, which can make you act in weird ways).
My fiancee knew I was upset, and I owned up that I lost a lot of money. I said it was due to the crash (which did happen on the same day). She could see the charts so she believed me, but she does not know that I lost every single cent. Lies, but I felt that I did what I had to do (her dad had a major gambling and alcohol problem, so I really could not break her heart like that.)
The money that I lost is for tuition. It's just under $50k as I already said. The most immediate payment is due end of May, which is around $5k (the remainder of this academic year). The rest ($40k) is due over the following academic year (13/14). If I can pay off the $5k I will at least survive until the summer and maybe nobody will notice. I have not told anybody what happened, except my flatmate who I have known since high school and am pretty close with.
The reality is I will most likely be forced to withdraw from the program, because the payments are due September and Christmas and my visa status does not permit me to work part-time. I will have to return home to England and I will lose my fiancee (who is also on a student visa).
So this is pretty much my story. I meant for this to be short, but I now I'm almost at the word limit. I hope there is still room for questions! I realize that there are a lot of people who will say that I had it coming, and I fully accept that. The truth is that I am a bad person, and it was not even some conflict of good and bad, this was just all bad. I lose as a human being, and I deserve nothing but the worst of what life has to offer me in the future. And if I sound incongruently cheerful, it's probably because the gravity of the situation has not fully sunk in yet. Trust me, I am not cheerful. I have literally lost everything, I am suicidal, and there is literally no silver lining here. So please reserve your judgment; I will be judged to the fullest extent over however long a time I have left to live. Gambling details:
By April 10, I had gambled my way up to almost $500,000. That morning, the crash began. I foresaw the crash, but like most speculators, I did not know where the top was going to be. It was at $266. I put in a sell when the price went below $230, which was my stop, but Mt.Gox (the main Bitcoin exchange) was lagged so badly that my order would not go through.
Not being able to sell, I got greedy and decided to "top up" one more time with roulette. I felt justified in this somehow because it was Mt.Gox's fault that I could not cash out my ridiculous profits. I started with a $100 bet I believe. I bet on red. What followed was a run of about 20 occurences of black5 . There must have been two reds in between the stream of blacks. After hitting the max bet I just kept hitting red, and it kept turning black. Once you hit the max bet, the martingale essentially turns into a random walk. So a single red does not save you. Instead you rely on more red than blacks, within a certain safety margin. I failed both the martingale and the random walk. I lost ~1800 BTC (~$380,000 and depreciating quickly) in less than 1 minute.
I still had $50,000 left in USD. After the crash died down, I immediately bought in BTC to make up the losses. I kept betting red, and hit another run of about 12-15 black5 . I lost the $50,000 the same way.
April 12: at this point I was in full-tilt mode. I figured if I can just double up, then I can at least make up for the previous bullet point, if not the one before that. I kept betting on red, as a matter of stubborn principle (surely not again). And I swear you could not make this shit up: another run of 10+ black5 . I lost it all.
1 Some of the names and places may be fictitious. 2 I was never a gambler, but I do have a degree in math: there's around a 90% chance that you will top up by 10% if you combine basic strategy with martingale. The inherent variance, 3/2 payouts and doubling makes the whole process very confusing to an untrained eye, and it's not that obvious that you are using a cheap and flawed betting system. Scraping a small profit is very easy and fun. I guess I just wanted to impress my fiancee and her friends. 3 The bad beats with Blackjack were mainly due to variance. The problem with Blackjack is that the house edge is calculated by considering a large number of hands with the same starting bet. But with martingales, getting a 3/2 payout is more beneficial with higher bets; likewise having to split/double is good with higher bets, but not good if you're up against the max bet. So the luck further compounded by variance of the bet amount with respect to the starting hand. In roulette the house edge is worse, the but game is a lot more homogeneous. 4 I gave bitZino about 6 months of their earnings from last year in just under one minute: http://arstechnica.com/business/2013/01/bitcoin-based-casino-rakes-in-over-500000-profit-in-six-months/ 5 The probability of a run of 7 black is just under 1%, which is a number that we can relate to, it's 1 in 100. Pretty unlikely. If your luck sucks you might hit it a few times. The probability of 10 blacks is just under 0.1%. So if you hit one of the above, then only count is 1 in 10 times. Your luck has got to really suck to hit that more than once. The probability of an initial run of 12 black is around 0.02%, which is just ridiculously low. The probability of 20 black is about 0.0001% which is astronomically low. Disregarding the 2 reds, since I hit the max limit, so not really a fair account, but still. This is almost impossible.
-Aleksey Selikhov Developer (Back-end)
-Ivan Violentov Developer (Front-end)
-Nikita Shchipanov (Web Analyst)
-Rust Khusyainov (Illustrator)
-Aleksey Smirnov (DevOps Engineer)
-Yuriy Homyakov Developer (Back-end)
-Nikita Shchipanov (Web Analyst)
-Anna Bordunova (Public Relations)
Further recruitment was confirmed in May 2018. Advisors: -Don Tapscott: This legendary investor, business manager and author has become a big name in the blockchain scene in recent years, being best known for his consulting position on the ICON project and his bestselling book, The Blockchain Revolution. Tapscott’s authship is by no means limited to cryptocurrency and his book Wikinomics was a bestseller on the business book charts. -Moe Levin: Levin is also an all-star of the crypto scene. Since 2013 he organizes conferences for all industry representatives. His keynote conferences are among the most influential in the industry and he hold advisory positions on many promising projects. -Abbaz Zuaiter, Zuaiter was Chief Operating Officer of Soros Fund Management between 2002 and 2013. -Ruslan Gavrilyuk (CryptoFinance Advisor CEO & Founder of TaaS Fund) -Saul Hudson (Communications Advisor, GM at Thomson Reuters) -Mohammad Al Sehli (MENA Advisor, CEO & Founder of Arabian Chain) If one was to compare the panel of advisors for each and every project in cryptocurrency, The Jibrel Network’s board of advisors would certainly be within the top 1 percentile. They have struck the right balance in their blend of experts within blockchain and within he world of conventional finance, so that the project is connected to every area of business and finance it needs to be in order to develop the vision of the founders. A perfect example of this is Don Tapscott’s presentation to Bank of England in March 2018 where he extolled the virtues of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology. ICO: The ICO ran from 27/11/2017, to 27/12/2017, ending weeks before it was supposed to, and saw all 155 million ERC-20 JNT tokens sold at a price fixed at 0.25 USD. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum were accepted during the token sale in addition to fiat contributions facilitated by Bitcoin Suisse AG. The revenues in Bitcoin and Ethereum were sold immediately after the ICO (at $ 300 an ether and $ 4500 for a bitcoin) to avoid speculation with investors' funds. The remaining 45 million JNTs that have been withheld are paid out to the team after 3-5 years. The extreme length of the token locking period for team members shows the huge amount of confidence that the project leaders have in this project. Vision: In order to understand the vision of Jibrel in more detail, one must look at the state of the contemporary financial system. On the one hand, we have classic investment products such as bonds, gold, real estate, company shares and Fiat. Let's take a look at how transactions involving traditional assets will operate. Currently, we have a concentration of power where individual financial intermediaries clear the transactions for high fees. In addition, 2 billion people worldwide have no access to traditional banking and therefore rely on service providers MoneyGram or Western Union for international remittances. The fees involved in transactions using Western Union for example can be exhorbitant and sometimes prohibitive. Other negative aspects of these kinds of service providers are the lengthy wait for transactions to clear and the effect of weekends and bank holidays on service operations. Through use of blockchain technology it is possible to avoid all of these negative aspects of current payment systems and transfer value in an extremely cheap safe and speedy manner, with possession of a mobile device being the only necessity within this new method of transacting. However, the volatility risk is not to be understated. If we put ourselves in the position of a manual laborer from India who works in Dubai and earns just enough to send $ 100 a month to his family back home, we can better analyse the advantages and disadvantages of each form of transaction . For various reasons, be it regulations, the length of stay or simply because of the associated fees, the worker has no bank account with which he can transfer the money. The only way to send money free of volatility and without being tied to a bank account is to pay the approximate $10 processing fee to a service provider like Western Union, a fee which can mean 10-15% less cash sent home to relatives.. The cheaper and faster alternative would be to buy $100 worth of cryptocurrencies in Dubai and to make a simple blockchain transaction to send the corresponding value in rupees back to India. At first glance, this may seem like a more attractive alternative but drawbacks such as price volatility as well as tax and legal implications must be considered. The value of the cryptocurrency purchased may fluctuate by as much as 10% between purchase in Dubai and receipt in Indian and the resulting profit could be subject to capital gains tax. Products: The Jibrel Network’s range of products are aimed at tackling problems such as the scenario described above as well as many other inefficiencies and failings in the current financial system. The first and most significant of these the Crypto Depository Receipt (CryDR) builds on the existing depository receipt instrument in order to facilitate global transactions involving currencies or securities. The total volume of depository receipts issued in 2016 was $2.9 trillion which shows the potential magnitude of the endeavour the project founders are undertaking. For example, Jibrel, in collaboration with central banks, will initially issue $USD, AED and KRW on the Ethereum Blockchain as so-called jCash tokens. Which can then be purchased in exchange for the JNT token. For our example, this means that the worker in Dubai buys the JNT token and then sends it to Jibrel. In return, he receives dirham tokens, so-called jAED in the same value. The tokens he receives remain stable in value regardless of market volatility, allowing them to be used as a potential means of payment weeks later, or to be converted back to fiat currency. Besides the peer-to-peer crypto-fiat JCash initiative, The Jibrel Network plans to tokenize a great many other financial instruments as CryDRs, such as bonds, gold, company shares and real estate. At present, there are many pilots on going between Jibrel and distinguished institutions that are in future make use of the technology. Jordan's Central Bank and the DFSA (Dubai's Financial Service Authority) are known to be taking part as in pilots we speak. Moreover, Talal confirmed at a conference that a central bank of one Europe nation is also piloting with Jibrel, however the name of the country has not been made public yet. Use cases: The issuance of shares by CryDR will be piloted usually in cooperation with a venture capital firm. In the future, cost-intensive IPOs of small companies can be replaced by the issuance of CryDRs, which can then be acquired with the JNT token. According to Jibrel founders, registering and trading real estate on the blockchain proves to be a difficult proposition. There are numerous bureaucratic obstacles that must be traversed and legislative progression to be made by the respective governmental entities of individual countries before the trading of land or real estate is possible on the blockchain. Some countries are committed to the introduction of blockchain technologies on a wide scale which will run parallel to their current systems and eventually may replace them, which will allow the trade of real estate to flourish in future. The United Arab Emirates, for example, has announced that the country's primary goal is to largely replace the bureaucracy by 2020 with the use of blockchains. Bigger picture: It is important to clarify the economic implications associated with the issuance of assets on the blockchain. A small business IPO can cost up to 500000 USD and involve regulatory hurdles that prohibit the majority of small time investors from participating. Alternatively, it was possible for companies seeking funding to be funded by venture capital. Liquidity and access to risk capital has so far been limited due to the lack of an open and transparent risk capital market. The increased liquidity provided by blockchain technology enables company shares and real estate to be traded worldwide in the smallest of volumes, with an internet connection being the only prerequisite for inclusion in the system. Extensive new opportunities are now available to investors, startups and estate agents. For example, a construction project or a start-up can be financed by several thousand investors, who then count as legal owners of the property / start-up. In this innovative system entrepreneurs are less reliant on the capital provided by a few large investors, with the investor base expanded. Furthermore, the "smart regulation" of the tokens allows the automated cash flow between the creditors and debtors, so, for example, rent payments of the tenants can automatically be paid in the form of jcash to the owners. This phenomenon of global financial inclusion is why ICOs have become the most popular startup fundraising tool - now Jibrel will attempt to transfer the liquidity and egalitarian benefits of using a blockchain to the classic economy. Token Economics: In general, one has to ask the question in blockchain projects whether a separate token is necessary or whether the decentralization goal of the project makes sense The ultimate goal of Jibrel is to be a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) that manages the operational business without human influence through smart contracts. The Jibrel founders use the story of Pinocchio as a metaphor for their future development. Currently Jibrel is still a wooden doll that needs a puppeteer, which in this case is still the team. As soon as all regulatory and technical preparations have been made, Jibrel, like Pinocchio, is freed from the strings of it’s puppeteers and acts autonomously. The founders hope that at the end of this process the first decentralized bank will have been born. Now, the question arises as to why the Jibrel Network uses its own token to secure values rather than using an established cryptocurrency. For one thing, Jibrel is not the typical project based on short-term hype cycles and wants to maintain the the most stringent levels of legal compliance possible. The commitment to legal compliance is an essential requirement for any company seeking to operate in the financial services industry and was the core reason for the company making Switzerland the country within which to base its operations. Switzerland is one of the few countries that make high demands on projects but also gives a clear regulatory framework within which to operate. These include commitment to KYC, AML and other legal guidelines that emphasize the trustworthiness of the project. The issuance of a separate token allows the Jibrel organisation to maintain an independent legal compliance record which would not be possible if Jibrel were to take Ethereum as a collateral in the conducting of its operations. If the Ether token was used in place of the Jibrel Network Token the whole Jibrel project would be at the mercy of the regulatory health of the Ethereum Project, over which it would have no control. Similarly the stability of the Jibrel Project would be subject to the extremely volatile cryptocurrency market’s valuation of the Ether token, which would be disastrous for investor confidence. The solvency, and thus the disbursement ability of the organization is achieved by depositing the CryDR using its own JNT token. If you wish to tokenize an asset the Jibrel DAO removes the captured JNT from circulation, decreasing the amount of JNT in circulation and consequently increasing the value of all remaining circulating JNT. If an asset is liquidated the previously locked up JNT are brought back into the market. In order to increase the number of tokens owned by the organization, Jibrel will provide its own products and services that charge the fee in the form of the JNT Token. One of the most important of these products is the jWallet, a cryptocurrency wallet with a far superior user interface and performance of its competitors. The alpha of the jWallet was published before the ICO and the beta version is in development with an expected release date of around the end of Q2. Probably the most interesting and urgently needed product in the field of infrastructure is the blockchain explorer jSearch, which allows the user to view transactions on all blockchains. Existing solutions such as etherscan.io or etherchain.org provide only rudimentary insight and an unsatisfactory user experience. For example, jSearch can be used as a tool to search, filter and bookmark already-issued assets. It is safe to infer rom all the information available that the Jibrel Network is a serious startup attempting to ensure long term solvency by exploring alternative sources of revenue. The resulting Jibrel ecosystem will eventually become in a sense an isolated market within which the performance of other cryptocurrencies plays no role. challenges: The implementation of such a paradigm shift will naturally see many hurdles and challenges present themselves. The project stands and falls with the speculative volatility of the market, which can act so irrationally that the buffers of the deposits are not sufficient to counteract the undervaluation and the solvency of the organization is no longer ensured. For example, Jibrel announced that the first product, jCash, will initially only be deposited off-chain due to market volatility, meaning that for the time being no deposit of JNT is required to issue Fiat. As soon as volatility on the market decreases and Jibrel has enough equity to compensate for any shortfalls, all CryDRs will need a JNT deposit as this is the only way to ensure full decentralization of the organization. However, mechanisms such as off-chain / on-chain arbitrage ensure that undervaluation of assets is prevented. In order to get the most realistic token value, Jibrel is currently developing its own blockchain to decouple itself from the Ethereum blockchain and the events on the market. The in-house blockchain jCore is currently under development. Details on the consensus algorithm and the release date will be announced. Milestones: -SEED backing/ Office -Jordan -JWallet -EEA -VQF -DSFA in Dubai -MAMA
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